Jeff Byrne

jeffszdaily@yahoo.com

AS the bodies continue to pile up in strife-torn Syria, the regime of Bashar Assad is teetering on the brink.

Along with the assassinations of three senior figures in the Assad government came a dramatic change in the Syrian political landscape. That Assad will go is no longer questioned, it’s just a matter of when.

London-based business intelligence firm Alaco estimates that Assad, his extended family and cronies, have accumulated at least US$1.5 billion which is socked away in overseas havens to avoid seizure. Head of Alaco Ian Willis says the millions of dollars frozen by U.K. banks is just a fraction of the regime’s global wealth. So the looters will probably be able to live in the manner to which they have become accustomed.

That is, if they can find a country that would accept them, and that could be politically toxic with the accepting country finding itself on the wrong side of the fence when a new Syrian regime emerges.

What is clear is that Syrians opposing the Assad regime have thrown off the cloak of fear that has ruled them for 42 years. They are no longer afraid, even in the face of an estimated 17,000 deaths over the past 15 months.

There is a growing concern that Assad could use chemical weapons in a frantic, desperate bid to cling to power. But that is unlikely because it could alienate the regime’s few remaining supporters, including Russia.

However, exercising hindsight in Syria’s case is futile. Attention is now focused on the future and what it holds for the nation and its neighbors, who are becoming increasingly uneasy at the uncertainty of a future Syria.

Among the contenders are the Muslim Brotherhood and the umbrella group for the majority of opposition, the Syrian National Council. The STC seems to retain support from the West as well as the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia.

The Brotherhood claims to have the support of 25 percent of the people and to have plans to restore order, post Assad.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Brotherhood spokesman Muhein al-Droubi said: “We have plans for the economy, the courts, politics.” He conceded, however, that 25 percent support was not enough.

The real danger lies in an explosion of sectarian violence in the quest for power unless all the opposition forces give up their arms. That is unlikely. The Brotherhood, outlawed by Assad’s father, Hafez Assad, has an old score to settle after the 1982 slaughter of 20,000 people at Hama, instigated by Assad senior. Old wounds heal slowly and hatred dies hard.

What Syria will need is a core of experience and skill to turn the country around. Research Fellow at the United Services Institute, Shashank Joshi, has put a shape to the immense challenges facing Syria.

“If state authority were not established within a reasonable period after collapse, the longer-term prospects for a democratic, stable Syria would shrink even further, helped along by foreign powers eager to cultivate clients.

“What is clear is that the past few weeks’ dissension, assassinations and the loosening grip of Damascus all indicate an ever-narrowing base of support and a high probability of sudden and [formerly] unpredictable collapse.”

The saddest thing in all this is that Syria will need a strongman to unite and rule the country if the violence is to end.

This does not mean accepting another brutal dictatorship, rather a benevolent dictatorship if those who have fled are to return and peace is to ensue. As yet, the chances of this happening appear slim.

(The author is a former Shenzhen Daily senior copy editor and writer.)