Xu Qinduo

    xuqinduo@gmail.com

    THE recent successful visit to China by Vietnamese leader Nguyen Phu Trong shows the relationship between the two countries is back on track. Actually, they managed to achieve more than that in their attempt to bring back the comrades- style relationship.

    There hasn’t been much international coverage on the important agreement reached between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam — the joint communiqué on further developing bilateral ties. The tones are very positive, with one clause calling China and Vietnam “good comrades.”

    In fact, Nguyen Phu Trong even made an effort during his talks with Chinese leaders to call on both countries to consolidate their traditional friendship as “comrades and brothers.”

    Their pragmatic decision for both China and Vietnam to leave behind the flare-ups over territorial disputes started last year.

    For China, one way to fend off the aggressive U.S. “Pivot to Asia” strategy is to keep neighborhood regions peaceful and stable, including mending ties with Hanoi.

    For Vietnam, China is pivotal to its economy. The northern neighbor has been Vietnam’s largest trading partner for the past 11 years, and recent years have witnessed double-digit trade growth. Chinese goods currently account for 28 percent of Vietnam’s imports, and the figure is expected to reach over 50 percent in about five years.

    For the sake of its economic growth, Vietnam needs a stable external environment and it has to manage its ties to China well.

    The two countries enjoy unique strengths in fixing problems in their bilateral ties such as identical ideologies and similar political systems.

    Both sides seem to be able to see the large picture of bilateral ties from a historical point of view and the necessity of bringing the disputes under control.

    However, there’s one element that could work as a wedge against a strong China-Vietnam relationship: Washington.

    Jumping at a chance to draw Hanoi away from China’s orbit, the United State partially lifted sanctions against Vietnam in late 2014 when the neighbors saw uproar of nationalism on both sides against each other over a territorial dispute in June.

    The U.S. also offered Vietnam membership in TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, despite the high threshold, an excuse Washington used to reject Beijing. TPP is said to follow a rule called “ABC” — Anyone But China.

    One important step in U.S. “pivot to Asia” strategy is to play up the territorial disputes in the South China Sea as a way to contain the rise of China, and Washington has high expectations from Vietnam in that respect.

    TPP will bring tremendous pressure on Vietnam’s State-owned enterprises, which would enjoy little benefits under the rule. And despite the overture from Washington, Hanoi is clear that the ultimate goal of the United States remains unchanged: the downfall of communist rule in Vietnam.

    How to handle the relationships with big powers such as the United States and China is a serious challenge to Vietnamese leadership. But the visit to Beijing by Nguyen Phu Trong before his trip to Washington this summer speaks volumes about the priority for Hanoi.

    (The author is a current affairs commentator with China Radio International.)