Xu Qinduo

    xuqinduo@gmail.com

    A DEAL reached between South Korea and Japan on the historical issue of sex slaves has been hailed as “landmark” or “epoch-making.” Some Chinese reacted to the agreement with anxiety that Soul will be drawn away from Beijing and closer to the U.S.-Japan military alliance, thus a big minus to the growing influence of China. But a closer look at the dynamics among these countries shows that this concern could be an overreaction.

    The deal is a victory for both Japan and the United States. Washington has welcomed it, with National Security Adviser Susan Rice saying that the U.S. is looking forward to “advancing trilateral security cooperation.” To better implement the “pivot to Asia” strategy in response to the rise of China, Washington needs robust security cooperation among the three countries. As one U.S. media source put it, “Better relations between South Korea and Japan are a priority for Washington.”

    For Japan, which is also busy with countering the growing clout of China, there’s a pragmatic need to put aside the disputes over sex slaves for the sake of smooth bilateral ties with South Korea.

    In recent years, China and South Korea have been drawing closer and closer, to the chagrin of Washington and Tokyo. Seoul joined the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank despite protests from Washington. South Korean President Park Geun-hye attended the grand military parade in Beijing, a decision not exactly appreciated by the U.S. These developments also serve as justification for Japan to pursue a deal with Korea.

    However, does the agreement truly represent a breakthrough between South Korea and Japan despite decades of disputes over the sex slave issue? Is the deal enough, as some Chinese fear, to bring Seoul closer to the U.S.-Japan alliance at the expense of Beijing?

    Despite the diplomatic detente, the issue of sex slaves — euphemistically called “comfort women” — is unlikely to go away, at least in its entirety, as Japan wishes. For one thing, the comfort women still alive in South Korea were not part of the negotiations between Seoul and Tokyo. The Japanese offer of more than US$8 million to help those surviving women doesn’t necessarily constitute a direct official compensation from Japan. Some of the women have refused to accept the deal, saying the agreement doesn’t reflect their views. As one commentator pointed out, the agreement is more about political expediency than justice. Therefore, the pursuit of justice is likely to continue by individuals or civil groups, if not at the official level.

    The year 2015 marked the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and the fact that fewer and fewer comfort women remain alive necessitates a pragmatic settlement for South Korea. With an apology and payment from Tokyo, Seoul agrees to put to rest the thorny dispute.

    But what’s noticeable is that the real issue on comfort women is not the lack of official apology from Japan. In fact, there have been repeated apologies made by different Japanese governments. What annoys countries like South Korea and China, who both suffered massively from Japanese brutality during World War II, is the fact that, every now and then, right-wing Japanese politicians come out to deny the existence of comfort women. Even Shinzo Abe himself, the current Japanese prime minister, holds the view that those women were not sex slaves but prostitutes. The next round of denials and condemnation between Japan and regional countries seems to be only a matter of time. It’s not impossible that today’s achievement will be eviscerated.

    Besides, there’s also the question of comfort women in other parts of the region. What about them? Don’t they deserve the same apology and monetary offer from Japan? For example, Taiwan has already demanded the same from Japan.

    The immediate effect of the South Korea-Japan deal would be a huge relief for Tokyo from the heavy yoke of history. It may also facilitate direct intelligence sharing between Seoul and Tokyo, as opposed to the current practice of indirect information flow via Washington.

    But this change can hardly represent anything substantial. After all, intelligence remains unchanged, direct or indirect.

    On the other side of the story, the relationship between China and South Korea is strong, as Seoul trades more with China than the sum it does with the U.S. and Japan. The China-South Korean relationship is expected to grow even stronger with the recent implementation of a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. Culturally, China receives more foreign students from South Korea than from any other country. On the critical issue of North Korea, Beijing and Seoul, both northern neighbors, share similar views. Beyond the worry of Pyongyang’s nuclear program, China and South Korea see eye to eye on the significance of political stability in North Korea.

    We are still a long way from a stable relationship between South Korea and Japan and the close economic and historical ties South Korea enjoys with China makes it hard to imagine Seoul being used to form a united front with the U.S. and Japan against China.

    (The author is a current affairs commentator with China Radio International and a visiting scholar at the University of Melbourne.)