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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Opinion -> 
China needs an active N. Korea policy
    2016-01-18  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

    Xu Qinduo

    xuqinduo@gmail.com

    IN the wake of the fourth and hydrogen nuclear test by North Korea, the rest of the world is again tested on how to respond effectively. Along with usual protests and condemnation will be more restrictive economic sanctions.

    But all these efforts are likely to be of little use. For one thing, if sanctions worked at all, North Korea would have abandoned its nuclear programs years ago. So the question remains: how should we proceed from here to possibly prevent a fifth or sixth nuclear test on the Korean Peninsula?

    China, as the major country with strong ties with Pyongyang, is naturally put in the international spotlight. The U.S. is pointing the finger at Beijing, saying China’s approach to North Korea has not worked and business cannot continue as usual. South Korea is also urging Beijing to demonstrate strong determination and measures to punish Pyongyang’s provocative behavior. The onus of denuclearize North Korea is somehow being laid upon Beijing.

    That attitude is both unfair and simplistic. The source of the tension in the Korean Peninsula is fundamentally between North Korea and the U.S. as part of the unfinished business of the Korean War over 60 years ago. The thinking that if China cuts off oil shipments, closes its borders and stops investments North Korea would surrender has the danger of overly simplifying a complicated security situation and severely underestimating the resolve of North Korean leadership.

    North Korea has legitimate security concerns, which are unfortunately often ignored by Washington, from the heavy U.S. military presence in both South Korea and Japan. Pyongyang is equally vigilant of the U.S. penchant for engineering regime changes in other countries. Given what happened to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, Libya’s Colonel Qaddafi and a denuclearized Ukraine, North Korea’s leadership probably has more than enough reasons to possess nuclear capability. For the long and the short of it, Pyongyang is unlikely to abandon its nuclear program unless it achieves what it wants.

    China enjoys a historical friendship with Pyongyang, forged during their joint fight against the U.S. and its allies in the Korean War. Beijing is also North Korea’s largest trading partner and provides 90 percent of the country’s energy and 80 percent of its consumer goods.

    The potential leverage China wields over the North Koreans is huge. It has tried to excise some of the influence in the form of stopping Pyongyang from going nuclear, but Chinese effort alone, in the absence of U.S. concessions, have proved inadequate.

    As part of forward-looking policy deliberation, China should instead consider a pro-active approach to North Korea to help the country shake off poverty, end its isolation and open to the outside world.

    For example, China may link its supply of energy and other assistance, not completely to nuclear tests, but also to policy changes in social and economic fields. North Korea should be encouraged to open its doors to Chinese investment and export its products to the Chinese market.

    People-to-people exchanges between the two countries should be greatly reinforced by measures like visa-free arrangements. By fostering a close people-to-people bond, China will be able to cultivate an atmosphere of change in the isolated nation.

    China had taken steps of that nature by inviting Kim Jong Il, the then Korean leader, to meticulously arranged tours to demonstrate to him that North Korea can learn from China by opening its doors and score rapid economic growth. However, the effort failed to work out as expected.

    But that doesn’t mean China should give up on North Korea. On the contrary, Beijing should relaunch its policy of persuasion and actively involve its neighbor in economic reforms and opening up.

    A prosperous and confident North Korea should be easier to deal with than the present intransigent government, which has nothing but nuclear bomb to fall back on.

    (The author is a current affairs commentator with China Radio International and a visiting scholar at the University of Melbourne.)

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