Winton Dong

    dht620@sina.com

    ACCORDING to a June 14 Reuters report, the latest survey by The Times showed that 46 percent of Britons would vote to leave the EU, 39 percent preferred to stay, 11 percent were undecided and 4 percent were unwilling to vote. With the coming of the referendum Thursday, such a high percentage of “Leave” campaigners show a hardening in eurosceptic sentiment and the future of Britain is at stake.

    The EU is regarded as one of the most successful and powerful international organizations in the world with 28 member countries. But why is Britain so determined to break away from it now?

    Firstly, many British believe their country is being held back by the union. They say the EU imposes too many rules on business and charges billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little return.

    “British taxpayers have already paid nearly 2 billion pounds (US$2.87 billion) for Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey to join the EU,” complained Boris Johnson, the eurosceptic former mayor of London.

    Secondly, many people in Britain want to take back full control of its borders and reduce the number of people coming to live or work in the country. One of the main principles of EU membership is free movement, which means one doesn’t need to get a visa to go and live in other EU nations. “If we stay, we are tying ourselves to a broken Eurozone economy while simultaneously accepting unlimited migration of people trying to escape their countries,” said British Justice Secretary Michael Gove. It was said that the European Commission recently announced the acceleration of a plan to extend visa-free travel to the borders with Syria and Iraq.

    Thirdly, some Britons also object to the idea of an “even closer union” within Europe and what they see as moves towards the creation of the “United States of Europe.” The British worry that such moves will further put relatively richer countries, such as Britain, in a more disadvantaged position in the union.

    On the other hand, those who campaign for Britain to stay argue that the country gains by being a member. They believe Britain’s status in the world would be damaged if a Brexit (British exit) finally turns into reality, because it is more secure as one of the 28-nation club, than going it alone. Moreover, membership makes exporting goods to other EU countries easier. The inflow of immigrants, most of them young and keen to work, fuels economic growth and helps pay for public services in Britain.

    What are the economic and political consequences of the upcoming EU referendum if the Brexit becomes a reality?

    From an economic standpoint, short-term uncertainty caused by a vote in favor of leaving the EU would lead to tighter credit conditions and fuel a rise in interest rates. “Nearly all experts agree there will be instant shocks to the economy if we leave the EU and there is a clear danger of higher mortgage rates,” British Prime Minister David Cameron was quoted by The Mail newspaper as saying recently.

    According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a Brexit would see the sterling fall by about 20 percent in value and thus drive inflation by between 2 to 4 percent higher than it would be if the U.K. stays in the EU. “Over the long term, Britain will suffer lower exports, more tariffs, higher domestic prices, less foreign investment, lower wages, more public service cuts and a quicker recession. It would leave Britain worse off for decades to come and shrink its economy by at least 6 percent by 2030,” said the research body.

    Other state leaders also show their economic concern. While visiting the U.K. recently, U.S. President Barack Obama warned that Britain would be at “the back of the queue” for a trade deal with the U.S. if it votes to leave.

    In terms of politics, the referendum will almost certainly reignite calls for a second Scottish independence referendum. The first referendum in 2014 ended in a narrow victory for the Better Together Campaign that kept the U.K. together as a country.

    “I and the majority of Scots want to remain in the EU. If the rest of the U.K. votes in favor of a Brexit on June 23, people in Scotland will look again at whether Scotland should be independent,” said Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish National Party leader.

    “To be or not to be, that is the question,” said British playwright William Shakespeare more than 400 years ago in “Hamlet.” Today, “vote to leave or stay” is another question that is facing the British people.

    Let’s wait and see the result of the referendum.

    (The author is the editor-in-chief of the Shenzhen Daily with a Ph.D. from the Journalism and Communication School of Wuhan University.)