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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Opinion -> 
Manila needs balanced foreign policy
    2016-07-11  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

    Winton Dong

    dht620@sina.com

    THE Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has said an arbitral tribunal will announce on July 12 the ruling of a case about the South China Sea which was unilaterally raised by the Philippines.

    China has taken a firm position of not participating in or accepting the arbitration since it was launched in early 2013, because the issue raised by Manila is related to national sovereignty and maritime delimitation, which is beyond the tribunal’s jurisdiction.

    With the coming of the ruling tomorrow, tensions continue to intensify in the South China Sea. Many are speculating what countermeasures China will possibly take after the ruling is announced. So far, no Chinese official has commented. For many years, the Chinese Government has consistently followed the position of “shelving disputes and seeking common interests.” One source close to the matter said that China has never taken any provocative action or stirred up regional tension in the South China Sea. It was the Philippines that first engaged in sea reclamation activities in the area and built airstrips on China’s Zhongye Island.

    If we review history, China has suffered deeply from hegemonism and bullying by Western powers since the late Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). But now the country is determined to safeguard its national sovereignty as well as maritime rights and will by no means shy away from provocations from other countries.

    According to a former senior Philippine diplomat, the Philippine Government should be blamed for the escalation of regional tension. “China has been for the negotiations all along, but from the beginning we were not,” said Alberto Encomienda, former secretary general of the Maritime and Ocean Affairs Center of the Philippine Foreign Affairs Ministry.

    After taking office on June 30, 2010, then Philippine President Benigno Aquino III carried out a totally antagonistic and strongman foreign policy toward China. In September that year, Aquino paid his first state visit to the United States. Since his U.S. visit, everything that came up about the Philippines’ South China Sea position has had something to do with the term “rule basis.” “But this is a rule basis determined by the U.S.,” said Encomienda. The truth behind the sea area’s arbitration case is political intrigue, whereby certain countries have deliberately stirred up tensions and put the Philippines to the front stage as a puppet.

    As we know, for the helmsman of a nation, crafting foreign policy is not like playing a video game where one can reset and restart after a character expires. Frankly speaking, Aquino’s strongman policy has gained him some support. However, such a policy has severely harmed its relations with China, the second-largest trade partner for the Philippines. According to figures released by the Philippine National Statistics Bureau, Japan, China and the United States were the top three trade partners of the country in 2015 with trade volumes of US$18.766 billion, 17.223 billion and 16.02 billion, respectively.

    Under the stewardship of Aquino, ties with China have nose-dived and the unilateral arbitration case brought up by the former Philippine president has further worsened bilateral relations. In consideration of China’s gigantic total foreign trade volume, Chinese trade with the Philippines is really not worth mentioning. However, can the Philippines suffer the loss of such a large trade partner and vast export destination as China?

    During the Philippine presidential campaign this year, Rodrigo Duterte won a landslide victory to become the country’s 16th president. One of his winning strategies was to criticize the former president’s policy toward China. In a congratulatory letter to Duterte, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China and the Philippines are good neighbors, and being friendly is a tradition of the two countries which has endured for more than 1,000 years.

    Duterte did not elaborate his foreign policy to China in the inaugural speech on June 30. However, during a speech in Davao City on June 27, he said he would refrain from commenting on the territorial dispute in the South China Sea, pending the decision in the arbitration case. According to analysts, unlike his predecessor, Duterte is expected to take a more pragmatic approach to the territorial disputes with China. But we should not be too optimistic about the situation. Under the influence of Aquino, there is little room for Duterte to make a sudden change in a short period of time.

    The South China Sea issue is truly a difficult case for the nations concerned and a touchstone to test their political wisdom. Should tensions escalate in the region, not only will it affect China, the Philippines and other Asian countries, but the U.S. itself may also be dragged into trouble against its own will and pay an unexpected price. Despite the negative impacts from within and outside the region, China has not lost confidence and will stick to its policy of seeking peaceful settlement through bilateral negotiation and consultation. Moreover, an independent and balanced foreign policy in the Philippines will surely help resolve the issue and keep the region stable.

    (The author is the editor-in-chief of the Shenzhen Daily with a Ph.D. from the Journalism and Communication School of Wuhan University.)

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