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szdaily -> Business_Markets -> 
House price growth ‘to slow to 2% in 2017’
    2017-03-03  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

    CHINA’S house price growth will slow significantly on continuing government curbs and tighter credit conditions this year, dampening land sales that hit record highs in 2016, but views diverge on whether prices will correct sharply, a Reuters poll showed.

    Home prices across the nation are expected to rise a median 5 percent in the first half of the year and 2 percent for the full year, the poll estimated. Analysts expect a lag between official tightening steps and the deceleration in price growth.

    Prices of new homes in China surged 12.4 percent last year, the fastest rate since 2011, prompting more than 20 cities to introduce property curbs to cool the market since October.

    The red-hot land market, widely regarded as one of the main reasons for a sharp rise in house prices last year, is also seen coming off the boil this year as developers’ financing channels, such as property bond issuance, have also been tightened.

    Most analysts expect the Central Government’s cautious policy tone and tighter credit conditions to continue to weigh on the property market this year, as Chinese leaders have pledged to stem the growth of asset bubbles and prevent financial risks in 2017.

    “From our sales figure in January and February, the upward momentum in the market is not contained yet. If it persists, the government will be pressured to tighten credit,” said property consultancy Centaline’s research arm.

    The central bank has raised interbank lending rates in recent weeks, as part of efforts to implement a “neutral and stable” monetary policy to control the amount of money in the market.

    Despite a more bearish view of the property market, only three of 11 analysts polled predicted that prices would fall this year. Inventories remain low in the biggest cities and cash-rich developers who made lucrative profits last year have little incentive to lower prices on new units, analysts said.

    But half of those polled said some second-tier cities could be at risk of a sharp price correction.

    These cities include Zhengzhou, Wuxi, Hefei, Suzhou and Hangzhou, which posted double-digit price growth in 2016 except for Wuxi, which is not included in the 70 cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics.

    China’s housing market has become increasingly polarized, with prices skyrocketing in the biggest cities — Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen — while smaller cities are grappling with large housing gluts. The Central Government has had to rely more on local governments to implement city-based housing policies to address the imbalances.

    (SD-Agencies)

    Property curbs extended to satellite cities

    CHINA has extended property curbs to two satellite cities, in a sign regulators are concerned that speculators are banking on the country’s ambitious urbanization plans and buying in towns nearby sprawling metropolises.

    Non-local residents in Zhuozhou City, less than half an hour away by high-speed train from Beijing, will be restricted to purchasing a maximum of one home and required to make a down payment of at least 30 percent, according to a local government document released Wednesday.

    Local residents in Zhuozhou will be limited to buying two homes and required to put down at least a 50 percent down payment on their second home.

    Similar but less restrictive measures were imposed in Lianjiang, less than half an hour away by fast train from the southern city of Fuzhou, media reported Wednesday. The Lianjiang government made it more difficult for people to buy properties by introducing measures including raising the down payment ratio for first-home buyers borrowing from the housing fund to 30 percent.

    (SD-Agencies)

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