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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
Listless wage gains remain Group of 7 mystery
    2017-03-16  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

    UNEMPLOYMENT is falling almost everywhere. Wages aren’t rising much anywhere.

    From York, U.K. to Montreal, and Osaka to Seattle, it’s a pretty good time to be looking for a job as a member of the labor force in many developed countries.

    Unemployment rates in Group of 7 (G7) nations such as Canada, the United States, Britain, Japan and Germany are nearing or even slightly below what officials describe as a maxed-out jobs market.

    But wage gains worldwide have been only creeping along. For developed economies, that means the powerful cycle of higher compensation fueling stronger demand and then business investment and, eventually, a little more pricing power, has proven elusive.

    “It is a mystery,” said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank AG. “We’re barely seeing any wage growth.”

    Solving this puzzle matters, since it casts uncertainty over the health of the world’s labor markets and the direction of monetary policy. Central banks, which are supposed to tune their policy rates to inflation, could end up tightening too fast too soon if they conclude employment gains mean inflation is right around the corner. Or if they focus on the weak wage gains, they may end up leaving rates too low for too long, fueling asset bubbles.

    U.S. Federal Reserve officials concluded their meeting yesterday and markets are pricing in a quarter-point rate hike as part of a gradual normalization of rates from crisis lows. The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank release decisions today.

    Until now, policymakers have blamed the paucity of wage gains on existing economic slack. But that explanation is starting to look weak.

    In the United States, the number of workers unwillingly stuck in part-time jobs is back at 2008 lows. In Japan, where policymakers want higher inflation, labor shortages in service industries such as lodging and elderly care aren’t resulting in higher pay. In Canada, the jobless rate has dropped to a post-recession low, but wages have been growing at the slowest pace in more than a decade and aren’t keeping up with inflation.

    Even in Britain, where pay gains picked up last year, there’s been a recent slowdown — which may partly be due to uncertainty since the nation voted to leave the European Union — and evidence points to real wage gains shrinking as inflation accelerates.

    In Germany, where the economy is growing at a rate above the long-term trend, the lack of robust wage gains may be linked to the long-standing restraint of labor unions, mindful of the export-oriented country’s hyper-competitive attitude to global trade. Germany’s Federal Statistics Office reported in February that inflation-adjusted wages grew by 1.8 percent in 2016, the slowest pace in three years. (SD-Agencies)

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