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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Business -> 
IMF projects China’s growth at 6.6 percent
    2018-01-25  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

CHINA’S year-on-year GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6 percent this year, 0.1 percentage point higher than its previous prediction, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest report released Monday.

“Growth is expected to moderate gradually in China,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook update released in Davos, Switzerland, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

This is the fifth IMF raise of Chinese economic growth prospects in two years. In its October forecast, China’s growth for this year was 6.5 percent. Meanwhile, the IMF said the global economy is now expected to grow by 3.9 percent, up from 3.8 percent in its October projection.

“The revision reflects increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved U.S. tax policy changes,” the IMF said.

Such a gain in growth momentum in the global economy is favorable for China’s exports, which in turn will help shore up the world’s second-largest economy this year, according to analysts.

“Global economic growth will hopefully see moderate strengthening this year and China’s export growth momentum will be maintained,” said analysts of Golden Credit Rating International Co. Ltd. in a report.

Among the three major contributors to growth, retail sales growth may remain stable and largely unchanged this year, but fixed-asset investment growth may weaken thanks to the cool-off of the real estate sector, the ratings agency’s report said.

It predicted that fixed-asset investment growth will slow to 7 percent year on year this year, compared with 7.2 percent in 2017.

As the possibility is low for China to loosen its property price control measures, the real estate sector will see its investment and sales ease this year, the report said.

Although the expected local government reshuffle this year may lead to brisker investment activities, its effect will weaken as China has made it clear that it will pursue high-quality development, and as a result, the reshuffle will not provide a significant boost to investment growth, the report said.

While growth may dip, China will also face the challenge of handling financial risks posed by such factors as increasing debt, high leverage levels, and shadow banking this year, analysts said.

“It has become unprecedentedly important for China to safeguard the bottom line of forestalling systemic financial risks,” said Liu Dongliang, an analyst of China Merchants Bank. “On the whole, strengthening financial regulation will become China’s policy choice in the coming years.”

Although it may affect short-term growth, strengthened financial regulation will contribute to China’s medium-term growth, economists said.

(China Daily)

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