THE latest readings on the health of China’s trade sector are unlikely to ease tensions following weeks of tit-for-tat tariff threats by Washington and China, though they suggest China’s economy is still in relatively solid shape.

China’s trade surplus with the United States surged nearly 20 percent in the first quarter of the year, with some analysts speculating exporters were rushing out shipments to get ahead of threatened tariffs that are spurring fears of a full-blown trade war.

Even as China’s trade surplus narrowed overall in the first three months of the year, its surplus with the United States surged 19.4 percent to US$58.25 billion from a year earlier, customs data showed Friday.

While China was busy selling more to the United States, it was buying more from other countries, and ran a US$9.86 billion deficit with the rest of the world in the quarter.

China’s overall exports and imports both grew at a strong double-digit clip early in the year, and while exports unexpectedly fell in March — resulting in a rare trade deficit — most analysts chalked it up to seasonal factors and said it was too early to call a trend.

Still, while no hard timeline has been set by either Washington or China for the actual imposition of tariffs, analysts said China’s exporters may already be adapting their strategies as punitive trade measures loom.

China’s first-quarter exports to the United States rose 14.8 percent from a year earlier, despite a 5.6-percent drop in March. Its imports from the United States rose 8.9 percent in the quarter and 3.2 percent in March.

That helped narrow its surplus with the United States in March alone to US$15.43 billion from US$20.96 billion in February, but that was still nearly 18 percent higher than March 2017.

“The sharp decline in March export growth after very solid performance in January and February suggests some exporters may have front-loaded exports (early) this year due to concern over the possibility of a Sino-U.S. trade war after the United States hiked tariffs on global imports on solar panels and washing machines,” said Wang Lisheng, an economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

“We believe export growth will slow due to yuan appreciation and rising trade tensions ... China’s imports could be more resilient than exports in our view as China has pledged to increase imports,” Wang said.

For the first quarter as a whole, China’s exports grew a hearty 14.1 percent from a year earlier.

March shipments fell 2.7 percent, however, lagging analysts’ forecasts for a 10-percent increase, and down from a sharper-than-expected 44.5-percent jump in February, which economists believe was heavily distorted by seasonal factors.

“Most of (the March) drop is seasonal — Chinese New Year was later than usual this year, meaning more of the holiday disruptions will have dragged into March than in 2017,” Capital Economics senior China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard wrote.

March import growth of 14.4 percent beat expectations, however, suggesting China’s domestic demand may still be solid enough to cushion the blow from any trade shocks.

Analysts had expected imports to grow 10 percent in March, picking up from 6.3 percent growth in February.

Imports of commodities continued to lead the way in March as manufacturers replenished inventories ahead of a seasonal pickup in demand. (SD-Agencies)