到2045年，全球1/8的人将患2型糖尿病

One in eight people in the world will have type 2 diabetes by 2045 if obesity continues to climb at the present rate, according to a new study. Last year, 14 percent of the global population was obese and 9 percent had type 2 diabetes. By 2045, 22 percent will be obese and 14 percent will be suffering from type 2 diabetes, estimates presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Vienna suggest.

The implications of the expanding numbers are severe for health systems in every country. People with diabetes need monitoring, treatment and care for the serious potential complications which can include amputations and blindness.

The study was carried out by scientists funded by the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, which offers diabetes treatments, together with the Steno Diabetes Center in Gentofte, Denmark and University College London. They say that to prevent type 2 diabetes rates rising above 10 percent, obesity levels must come down by a quarter.

“The global prevalence of obesity and diabetes is projected to increase dramatically unless prevention of obesity is significantly intensified. Developing effective global programs to reduce obesity offers the best opportunity to slow or stabilize the prevalence of diabetes. The first step must be the recognition of the challenge that obesity presents and the mobilization of social service and disease prevention resources to slow the progression of these two conditions,” said Alan Moses of Novo Nordisk Research and Development in Soborg, Denmark.

The researchers have calculated the likely rise in obesity for individual countries. If current trends in the United States continue, obesity will increase from 39 percent in 2017 to 55 percent in 2045, and diabetes rates from 14 percent to 18 percent. In the United Kingdom, they say, current trends predict that obesity will rise from 32 percent today to 48 percent in 2045, while diabetes levels will rise from 10.2 percent to 12.6 percent.

“Each country is different based on unique genetic, social and environmental conditions which is why there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach that will work. Individual countries must work on the best strategy for themselves,” said Moses.

Words to Learn 相关词汇

【糖尿病】tángniàobìng

diabetes diseases characterized by high blood sugar levels caused by insufficient production of insulin, impaired response to insulin, or both

【患病率】huànbìnglǜ

prevalence the total number of cases of a disease in a given population at a specific time

根据一项新研究，如果肥胖症按照目前的速度发展下去，那么到2045年全球将有1/8的人患2型糖尿病。

2017年，全球肥胖症发病率为14%，2 型糖尿病发病率为9%。维也纳欧洲肥胖大会上公布的预测认为，到2045年，全球将有22%的人患肥胖症，14%的人患2型糖尿病。

这一不断攀升的数字让各国卫生系统面临严峻考验。糖尿病可引发截肢、失明等严重的并发症，因此患者需要接受监测、治疗和护理。

这项研究由制药公司诺和诺德资助，该公司与位于丹麦根措夫特的Steno糖尿病中心和伦敦大学学院合作，提供糖尿病的治疗方案。他们认为，为了防止2型糖尿病的发病率上升到10%以上，肥胖症患者必须减少1/4。

丹麦索伯格诺和诺德研发中心的阿伦•摩斯博士称：“若不大力加强对肥胖症的预防，预计肥胖症和糖尿病的全球发病率将大幅增加。制定有效的全球“减肥”计划，是减缓或稳定糖尿病不可持续流行的最佳机会。首先，必须认识到肥胖症带来的挑战，调动社会服务和疾病预防资源，以减缓肥胖症和糖尿病的发展。”

研究人员计算了各国肥胖症的上升趋势。如果目前的趋势继续下去，到2045年，美国的肥胖症患病率将从2017年的39%上升到55%，糖尿病的患病率将从14%上升到18%。

研究人员称，按照目前趋势，到2045年，英国的肥胖症发病率将从当下的32%增加到48%，而糖尿病发病率将从10.2%增加到12.6%。

“每个国家基于其独特的基因、社会和环境因素，面临的情况有所不同，因此没有‘万能’的方法。各国都必须找到最适合自己的对策。”

(chinadaily.com.cn)