THE dramatic decline in China’s currency is about to decelerate, according to the respondents in a survey. Only one of 20 traders and analysts surveyed said the yuan will fall below 7 per U.S. dollar in the next three months, a milestone level that was last crossed more than a decade ago. Their median year-end estimate was 6.7750, the survey carried out Monday and Tuesday found. That’s slightly stronger than where the yuan’s trading now. The People’s Bank of China was said to meet with lenders Monday in the latest effort to support the currency, and the offshore yuan rallied after the news broke. If the respondents are right, that would be a welcome reprieve for policymakers seeking to quell the risk of capital outflows seen when the yuan weakened in 2015-16. The yuan sank for the past eight weeks, a record losing streak, before a policy change late Friday by the People’s Bank of China that effectively made the currency costlier to short. “History shows the change can at least help to stabilize the yuan’s exchange rate versus the dollar temporarily or even correct the slump a bit,” said Li Liuyang, Shanghai-based analyst at China Merchants Bank Co., who forecasts a gain to 6.5 by the end of this year. “The 6.9 level will be very difficult to breach within the next one or two months. But, to see a complete U-turn, there needs to be fundamental support from trade negotiations, export data and the dollar index.” (SD-Agencies) |