OFFICIAL Chinese data this week are expected to show export growth remained strong in August, despite rapidly escalating U.S. tariffs and signs of shrinking export orders, a Reuters poll showed.

But import growth, while still solid, is expected to downshift from July, adding to concerns about slowing domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy that has prompted the government to shift toward policy easing.

Even with U.S. tariffs targeting US$50 billion in Chinese exports going into effect for their first full month in August, Chinese shipments likely still rose 10.1 percent year on year, according to median estimates from 26 economists.

That would mark a slight decline from 12.2 percent in July but would still be the fifth month in a row of double-digit gains even as U.S. trade tensions flared.

More sweeping U.S. measures are on the way, with President Donald Trump’s administration expected to impose duties on another US$200 billion of Chinese imports this month.

Some analysts believe Chinese exporters are continuing to rush out shipments ahead of further U.S. tariffs, buoying the headline growth readings, while some companies like steel mills are diversifying and selling more products to other countries.

Other economists have noted that disruptions in supply chains and prices are likely to be more company specific initially, and will take some time to be reflected in broader economy data and corporate earnings reports.

But official and private manufacturing surveys show global demand for Chinese goods is clearly on a softening trend, with export orders shrinking for the last few months in a row.

In a further tip that China’s supply chains are starting to feel the pinch, firms in some of its North Asian neighbors are reporting weaker Chinese orders, business surveys showed.

China’s imports likely rose 18.7 percent in August year on year, slowing from July’s 27.3 percent growth and at odds with a decline suggested in the official factory survey. (SD-Agencies)