SEEKING better-skilled workers, Cedar Electronics decided last year to return some of its manufacturing to the United States from the Philippines, only to run smack into a worsening U.S.-China trade tension.

Cedar makes radar and laser detection systems. When it shifted the assembly of those machines to Westchester, Ohio, it provided jobs for 30 people. Yet with President Donald Trump escalating his tariffs on Chinese imports, Cedar must now pay hefty taxes on critical imported parts — tariffs it didn’t have to pay when that manufacturing was done overseas.

“We’re effectively being penalized for bringing back that product manufacturing from the Philippines to the United States,” said Chris Cowger, the Chicago-based company’s chief executive. “If we had known this time last year, we most likely would not have brought those jobs back.”

On Monday, Trump intensified his trade tension with China by announcing tariffs on an additional US$200 billion in Chinese goods, including antennas and other electronic components that Cedar incorporates into dashboard cameras, CB radios and its detection systems. That followed tariffs on US$50 billion in goods that Trump had already imposed on China, which retaliated in kind.

Seafood, handbags, baseball gloves and thousands of additional items were also affected by the latest Trump tariffs. China swiftly announced that it would impose tariffs on US$60 billion in U.S. exports. Caught in the crossfire are companies like Cedar that depend on affordable imports and other businesses whose exports may now become prohibitively expensive in China.

The tit-for-tat blows signal that the trade fight will likely escalate further. While most analysts say the latest tariffs will likely have only a minimal effect on the U.S. or Chinese economy for now, they stand to inflict real damage, in the United States and perhaps globally, beginning next year. The latest Trump tariffs will start at 10 percent next week but will jump to 25 percent Jan. 1.

What’s more, Trump has warned that if China retaliates with its own tariffs, he’s prepared to tax an additional US$267 billion in Chinese imports. At that point, the Trump administration will have raised tariffs on virtually every good China sells the United States.

Because China said Tuesday that it would retaliate, Trump is now in a position, some analysts noted, in which he must follow through on his threat or lose credibility. That makes it more likely that the additional tariffs will be take place. Yet few think China is prepared to yield.

“President Trump issued an ultimatum to China: Surrender unconditionally or face unprecedented tariffs,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “China won’t surrender.”

If tariffs on the additional US$267 billion in Chinese imports are put in place, the total hit from the administration’s trade fight with China could slow U.S. economic growth by a third, to roughly 2 percent, in 2019, Daco estimates.

Some other economists forecast milder impacts. But most foresee the threat to the U.S. economy rising.

“This is the point where we move from very small effects to something that’s more notable,” said Lewis Alexander, an economist at Nomura Securities.

The worsening dispute, Alexander said, is taking the United States into unknown economic territory. For the past three decades, the U.S. economy has become increasingly open and more globally connected, with complex supply chains moving its products and those of its key trading partners across borders with few obstacles.

Now, it’s taking a step back.

“We don’t have experience with this kind of policy change,” Alexander said.

Adding to the uncertainty are other trade disputes that make it harder for companies to make long-term plans, he added. Some multinational companies, for example, that might want to shift production from China to Mexico could delay that move until talks to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement conclude. The United States has reached an agreement with Mexico on changes to the agreement, but has yet to do so with Canada.

China’s economy will likely also absorb a hit from the White House’s latest move. Louis Kuijs, an economist also at Oxford Economics, forecasts that all the tariffs now imposed will reduce its growth in 2019 by 0.4 percentage point.

That slowdown could weigh on the broader global economy as well. The economies of developing countries that export farm goods and other commodities to China are expected to weaken.

The Trump tariffs will likely raise U.S. inflation modestly, economists estimate, particularly if all imports from China are taxed. That would raise the cost of many more everyday consumer items — from shoes and toys to smartphones and home appliances.

The chief executive of the Macy’s store chain, Jeff Gennette, said that he expects more tariffs will be imposed and to begin hurting department stores and other clothing retailers. But he says it’s too early to determine how exactly the tariffs will affect consumers.

(SD-Agencies)