LARGE U.S. companies adjust to the trade standoff with China with price increases or changes to their supply chains, but they say the situation could deteriorate in 2019.

Tariffs have slowed timber and grain shipments, raised the cost of clothes hangers and heavy-equipment materials, and compressed margins for chipmakers and toolmakers, among other effects, according to an analysis of results and comments from the roughly 75 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings.

“The negative impact is pretty widespread across the S&P 500,” said Binky Chadha, chief U.S. equity and global strategist at Deutsche Bank. Still, he added, the overall impact is rather modest so far.

The tariff concerns come as the recent run of robust profit and sales growth shows signs of slowing. Gains are moderating and performance is uneven, with companies within some industries reporting markedly different results. Analysts and economists are warning of still-slower earnings growth next year.

Overall, third-quarter per-share earnings for S&P 500 companies were on track to rise 27.1 percent over the same period in 2017, the third straight quarter with earnings gains near or above 25 percent, according to financial data firm Refinitiv. Analysts say as much as a third of that quarterly gain stems from last year’s corporate tax cut, and is unlikely to continue next year.

S&P 500 revenues are expected to rise 8 percent, still above normal for recent years but slower than the last three quarters, Refinitiv data show. The figures reflect reported results, as adjusted by analysts, and analyst estimates for the rest.

Looking ahead, analysts and economists note that global growth has slowed, particularly in Europe and China. “Probably some of it is due to the tariffs and the trade war,” Chadha said. “But some of it would pretty clearly happen anyway.”

Firms are grappling with tariffs on trade with China, as well as on imports of steel, aluminum, softwood lumber and more.

Executives or analysts have mentioned tariffs or the terms “China trade” or “trade war” about 600 times in earnings calls at about 130 S&P 500 companies since mid-September, The Wall Street Journal found in an analysis of conference call transcripts retrieved from Factiva. The terms arose at least a half-dozen times at about a quarter of the firms.

If tariffs jump to 25 percent on the US$200 million in Chinese imports that currently face a 10 percent levy, as the Trump administration has threatened, it could reduce earnings growth for the S&P 500 by 2 to 3 percentage points, Lefkowitz said. He projects that would cut earnings growth to around 4 percent, a deceleration likely too small to derail the economic expansion on its own.

Some companies have said the tariffs are slowing demand for products shipped to China from the United States. According to timber company Weyerhaeuser Co., log exports to China declined with the country’s 5 percent tariffs, imposed Sept. 24, despite solid construction activity in China. (SD-Agencies)