EUROZONE business growth was much weaker than expected this month as exports fell sharply, hurt by a slowing global economy and an ongoing United States-led trade war, a survey showed Friday.

The disappointing readings will likely be of concern to policymakers at the European Central Bank who are expected to draw a line under their 2.6-billion-euro (US$3.38 billion) asset purchase program at the end of the year.

IHS Markit’s Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 52.4, its lowest since late 2014, from a final October reading of 53.1, missing the median expectation in a recent poll for a modest dip to 53. The lowest forecast was for 52.3.

However, anything above 50 in the survey, which is regarded as a good guide to economic health, indicates growth.

“This is a symptom of slowing global demand — manufacturing is leading the slowdown. The trade war was widely cited, especially in manufacturing,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

An index measuring new export business, which includes trade within member countries, fell from October’s 49.2 to 48.9, the lowest since IHS Markit started collecting the data in September 2014.

The PMI survey contradicts a poll last week which suggested eurozone growth will bounce back to a faster pace this quarter, allowing the European Central Bank to stop buying bonds next month as planned.

Growth was pegged at 0.4 percent in that poll but Williamson said the PMI pointed to a weaker 0.3 percent rate and could fall to 0.2 percent, depending on how December pans out.

A PMI for the bloc’s dominant service industry fell to a 25-month low of 53.1 from October’s 53.7.

The business expectations index fell to 60.3 from 62.1, its lowest in almost four years.

(SD-Agencies)