THE country’s pork output fell 0.9 percent in 2018 from the previous year to 54.04 million tons, official data showed yesterday, surprising analysts who had expected an increase as farmers liquidated their herds amid an African swine fever epidemic.

Output had gained slightly in the first three quarters of the year, and high slaughter volumes in the last quarter as farmers tried to cash in herds before being hit by the epidemic and before prices fell further.

Pork output fell as the size of China’s pig herd declined 3 percent to 428.17 million heads, according to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

China is the world’s top pork producer, accounting for half of global supply and with all its production consumed locally.

In 2018, the number of slaughtered pigs fell by 1.2 percent to 693.82 million head, according to the data.

Agriculture ministry data, however, shows that slaughtering by designated companies increased by 9.3 percent in 2018, while the national herd was down almost 5 percent in December from the same month of a year earlier.

Pig prices are hovering at multi-year lows across much of the north, reflecting in large part the recent high slaughter volumes and a glut of meat on the market.

Pork output increased by 0.3 percent in the first three quarters, according to previous data, reflecting a rapid expansion in the country’s breeding herd over 2017, said analysts.

The impact from African swine fever in the final months of the year should not have led to a significant decline in output, analysts said.

The statistics bureau data also showed beef output grew by 1.5 percent to 6.44 million tons in 2018, the highest volume in records going back 20 years, while lamb output rose 0.8 percent to 4.75 million tons.

Poultry production rose 0.6 percent to 19.94 million tons.

(SD-Agencies)