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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
Global growth rebound hopes hit by weak data
    2019-03-25  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

MANUFACTURERS in Europe, Japan and the United States suffered in March as surveys showed trade tensions had left their mark on factory output, a setback for hopes the global economy might be turning the corner on its slowdown.

Factory activity in the 19-country eurozone contracted at the fastest pace in nearly six years in March, data showed Saturday.

In Japan, manufacturing output shrank the most in almost three years.

And a measure of U.S. manufacturing was its weakest since June 2017 while forecasters at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia slashed their estimate for economic growth in early 2019.

“While such an inversion has traditionally been an indicator of a recession, this time around it may be less about the prospects for the U.S. economy and more about spillovers from what is happening in Europe and the bond market there, together with the effects of the Fed’s surprising decision to be very dovish again with its unconventional policy tools,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz in Newport Beach, California.

Global trade tensions continue to be among the main culprits behind the gloom.

“No other factor shapes the eurozone business cycle more than the ups and downs of global trade,” economists at Berenberg, a bank, said.

European officials are worried about the risk of U.S. tariffs on car imports from Europe.

The drop in the eurozone’s manufacturing purchasing managers index to a 71-month low of 47.7 from 49.4 in February raised the risk trade flows could turn even more negative in the short term, the Berenberg economists said.

The manufacturing downturn was partly offset by stable — but relatively weak — growth in the eurozone’s dominant services industry. But the surveys suggested the bloc’s economy had a poor start to 2019.

IHS Markit, which published the surveys, said the PMIs pointed to first-quarter economic growth of 0.2 percent in the eurozone, below the 0.3 percent predicted in a poll last week. The eurozone grew 0.2 percent in the final three months of 2018, its slowest pace in four years.

Earlier this month, the European Central Bank changed tack by pushing out the timing of its next rate increase until 2020 at the earliest and said it would offer banks a new round of cheap loans to help revive the economy.

In the U.S. series, Markit’s measure of manufacturing activity slipped to 52.5 in March from 53 in February, falling short of economists’ forecasts for a modest rebound. Markit’s manufacturing output index was the weakest since June 2016.

The headline Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was a seasonally adjusted 48.9, the same as February’s final reading.

The index was below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the second consecutive month.

(SD-Agencies)

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