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QINGDAO TODAY
在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
Asian economies lag as trade tensions put a drag on growth
    2019-04-04  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

TRADE tensions between China and the United States are putting a drag on economies in Asia, with growth likely to continue to slow in the coming two years, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report released yesterday.

The Manila, Philippines-based regional lender’s latest economic outlook forecasts that growth in developing Asia will slow slightly to 5.7 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 2020. In 2017, growth was at 6.2 percent.

“The main risk to the outlook is still the ongoing trade conflict, as heightened trade policy uncertainty can negatively affect investment and manufacturing activity,” it said. “A sharper slowdown in the advanced economies or China is another risk.”

The annual update comes as China and the United States prepare for another round of talks, this week in Washington, aimed at resolving their dispute over China’s industrial policies and acquisition of technology.

After the dispute escalated in mid-2018, with both sides imposing billions of dollars’ worth of tariffs on each other’s products, world trade weakened, contracting nearly 2 percent in January from a year earlier, the report shows.

It said the solid growth momentum in the first nine months of the year began to fade in the last quarter. Growth in industrial production also showed signs of weakness, the ADB report said.

This is an added burden as the business cycle for major economies heads into a “negative trend,” said the ADB’s chief economist, Yasuyuki Sawada.

“This global business cycle seems to create some impact on Asian economies,” he said. “It’s not only trade tensions.”

Other reports show similar sluggishness in the region, which remains the main driver for world economic growth.

The latest set of purchasing manager indexes showed slight improvements in exports in March from January-February for Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and China.

The ADB forecasts that growth in major economies will slip to 1.9 percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent in 2020 from 2.2 percent last year. The U.S. economy is forecast to expand at a 2.4 percent annual rate this year, slowing from 2.9 percent in 2018, and to decelerate to 1.9 percent growth in 2020. Japan’s growth will remain flat at 0.8 percent this year, it estimates, and fall to 0.6 percent next year.

The bank expects growth in the area using the euro to fall to 1.5 percent in 2019 and 2020 from 1.8 percent in 2018. (SD-Agencies)

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