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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
US chipmakers suffer from Huawei blockade
    2019-05-23  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

U.S. chipmakers are coming to grips with the costs of an escalating trade dispute between the United States and China as President Donald Trump steps up tariffs and sharpens his attacks on Huawei Technologies Co.

The emerging consensus: the price will be high.

“We’re all going to suffer in this industry if we don’t get this thing resolved,” said Tom Caulfield, chief executive officer of Globalfoundries Inc., the largest U.S. contract manufacturer of chips. “Even though you try to do the right thing and force a better balance in trade, it could have negative consequences.”

The presidential order banning the sale of U.S. technology to Huawei provides a clear illustration of just how interconnected the global supply chain has become — it’s almost impossible to avoid hurting U.S. companies in the process of pressuring their Chinese customers and rivals.

Caulfield’s company has plants in New York state, Germany and Singapore. On the surface, that makes him look well-positioned to take advantage of any migration of orders away from China. But that’s a simplistic view that doesn’t take into account where electronics parts originate and where they end up, he said.

For example, a chip may be designed in California, manufactured in Taiwan or another part of Asia, shipped to Malaysia or the Philippines for packaging, then sent on to the Chinese mainland for inclusion in a device. From there, the gadget could be sold locally or shipped anywhere in the world, including the United States.

“The supply chains in the semiconductor industry are completely entangled,” he said. “We can’t separate them.”

The U.S. Government’s blockade of business with Huawei cuts off the world’s largest networking gear maker and No. 2 smartphone vendor from the U.S. semiconductors and software it needs to make its products.

Huawei was granted a partial reprieve Monday with a temporary general license, though that license will only permit the continuing export of parts under existing contracts — it still won’t allow companies to move forward on new projects. That only provides short-term relief to Huawei’s suppliers.

The Huawei ban came on the heels of the Trump administration raising tariffs and taxes on imports from China, including clothing, shoes, handbags and electronics. According to a report by the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, strict export restrictions on emerging technologies could lead U.S. companies to lose US$14.1 billion to US$56.3 billion in revenue over five years, threatening as many as 74,000 jobs. The semiconductor industry alone could lose more than 9,000 jobs after a year of 20 percent tariffs, the researcher said.

Some smaller chipmakers are already saying fewer orders from Huawei and China are taking a bite out of their income. Lumentum Holdings Inc. cut its forecast Monday followed by Qorvo Inc. early Tuesday, a trend that’s likely to pick up speed amid the combination of 25 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and the U.S. blacklisting of Huawei, according to analysts.

“We would expect that many, if not most, semiconductor companies will need to lower estimates,” Raymond James & Associates analyst Chris Caso wrote in a note to clients.

A swoon in industry stocks shows many investors expect the same. Since reaching a record high April 24, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has plunged 14 percent. Huawei suppliers such as Skyworks Solutions Inc. and Xilinx Inc. have been among the biggest decliners.

Most U.S. semiconductor industry executives have declined to comment on the trade situation or the Huawei crackdown. They don’t want to risk upsetting their home government — or raising the ire of customers in their biggest market. The United States produced about half of the US$470 billion worth of chips sold globally last year, and China, whether for domestic consumption or for use in products that are later exported, was the biggest purchaser. (SD-Agencies)

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