A BAN on buying telecom equipment from Chinese firms would add about 55 billion euros (US$62 billion) to the cost of 5G networks in Europe and delay the technology by about 18 months, according to an industry analysis.

The United States added Huawei Technologies, the world’s biggest telecom equipment maker, to a trade blacklist in May, prompting global tech giants to cut ties with the Chinese company and putting pressure on European countries to follow suit.

The move by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration comes as telecom operators worldwide are gearing up for the arrival of the next generation of mobile technology, or 5G, which promises ultra-fast mobile Internet for those able to make the heavy investment needed in networks and equipment.

The estimate is part of a report by telecom lobby group GSMA, which represents the interests of 750 mobile operators.

“The need to replace network equipment and the capacity constraints on the remaining mobile equipment vendors would disrupt current rollout plans,” the report said.

The GSMA has already voiced concerns about the consequences of a full ban on Huawei, whose products are widely purchased and used by operators in Europe.

The 55-billion-euro estimate reflects the total additional costs implied by a full ban on purchases from Huawei and Chinese peer ZTE for the roll out of 5G networks in Europe.

The two Chinese vendors have a combined market share in the European Union of more than 40 percent.

“Half of this [additional cost] would be due to European operators being impacted by higher input costs following significant loss of competition in the mobile equipment market,” the report said.

“Additionally, operators would need to replace existing infrastructure before implementing 5G upgrades.”

According to the report, a ban would also delay the deployment by 18 months of 5G technology, which will be used in areas ranging from self-driving cars to health and logistics.

“Such a delay would widen the gap in 5G penetration between the EU and the U.S. by more than 15 percentage points by 2025,” according to the report.

This delay would result from delivery challenges for other major equipment makers, such as Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung, in the event of a sudden surge in demand.

It would also follow from the need for telecom operators to transition from one set of equipment to another.

“We continue to stress that it is imperative that the market has the widest possible choice of equipment, technology and partners, to drive, scale innovation and competition,” a GSMA spokeswoman said.

U.S. efforts to isolate the Chinese vendors amid a trade conflict with China have thrown the global telecom industry’s network upgrade plans into confusion as Huawei is one of the biggest suppliers of the core infrastructure and radio access equipment and the second-largest producer of smartphones behind Samsung Electronics Co.

Some U.S. allies have already followed Washington’s lead in excluding Huawei. But outright bans on Huawei appear unlikely in Europe, the region it relies on most for growth outside China, after Germany, France and Britain signaled more limited restrictions and tighter oversight of their networks.

“We need to have competition. We need to have strong companies that are able to invest in research and development,” Agnes Pannier-Runacher, a junior economy minister in France’s government, told reporters at a 5G event near Paris on Friday.

(SD-Agencies)