THE country’s exports probably fell for a second successive month while imports likely contracted more sharply in July, a recent poll showed, hurt by tit-for-tat tariffs in a trade spat between the world’s two biggest economies.

If trade data due tomorrow are in line with economists’ downbeat forecasts or worse, it could increase the risks of a global recession.

China’s July exports are expected to have declined 2 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 29 economists in the poll, compared with a 1.3 percent decline in June.

Imports are likely to post a steeper decline in July, pointing to softer domestic demand, as China’s stimulus measures have failed to put a floor under sliding economic growth.

Trump stunned financial markets last week by vowing to impose 10 percent tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, abruptly breaking a brief ceasefire in trade tensions.

“If tariffs escalate another step further, to 25 percent on US$300 billion, and remain on for four to six months, our economists would expect a recession within three quarters,” said Morgan Stanley analysts in a research note last week.

Some analysts say the scheduled new tariffs may again push Chinese exporters to front-load some of their U.S.-bound exports into August from September, which could provide some support to China’s export growth in August.

“We believe such a boost will be quite limited, given the relatively short time frame, and is likely followed by some payback effects in and after September,” said analysts at Nomura.

July imports were forecast to have contracted 8.3 percent from a year earlier, worsening from a 7.3 percent decline in the previous month, the poll showed.(SD-Agencies)