PORK prices in China surged past 50 yuan (US$7.07) per kilogram last week, as colder weather brought rising demand, exacerbating a severe meat shortage in the world’s top consumer.

The retail price jumped 9.2 percent in the week to Oct. 16, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed, the biggest weekly jump since at least 2016.

Prices are already way above previous records after a year-long outbreak of African swine fever left China’s herd more than 40 percent smaller.

Major breeders are also holding onto female pigs that were originally destined for slaughter to use for breeding instead, as they try to rebuild the herd without enough breeding sows.

That has reduced the slaughter volume just as pork consumption edges higher with the colder weather, said Jim Huang, chief executive at China-America Commodity Data Analytics.

Cofco Meat, the country’s sixth-largest producer, said two weeks ago that retaining female slaughter pigs had contributed to a 60 percent decline in the number of pigs slaughtered in the third quarter, though raising hogs to a larger slaughter weight was also a factor.

Live hog prices, meanwhile, hit 44 yuan per kg Friday in provinces of Sichuan, Guangdong and Fujian.

The national average in China of 40.4 yuan per kg is more than five times current U.S. prices for live hogs. But the China-U.S. trade dispute is curbing supplies from the United States, the world’s top pork exporter, because of high trade tariffs, analysts said.

With pork prices reaching 53.8 yuan per kg by the end of last week, market watchers debated whether they could soon hit 60 yuan.

Most expect the government to intervene before prices hit that level. (SD-Agencies)