CHINA’S exports and imports are expected to record double-digit declines in April after a tentative recovery in March as the coronavirus pandemic batters global demand and disrupts manufacturing supply chains, a poll showed yesterday.

Shipments out of China are likely to have fallen 15.7 percent in April from a year earlier, according to a median estimate from the survey of 28 economists, worse than a 6.6 percent contraction in March. Exports contracted by 17.2 percent in the first two months of the year.

Imports, meanwhile, are expected to have shrunk 11.2 percent from a year earlier, the sharpest drop since July 2016 and versus a 0.9 percent fall the previous month as domestic demand remained tepid.

The trade surplus for the month was forecast at US$6.35 billion, down from US$19.9 billion in March.

“The cracks in overseas supply chains and shrinking demand would lead to further declines in exports for the second quarter,” said analysts at Industrial Bank in Shanghai, adding that more than half of China’s processing trade depends on imported materials from other countries.

The bank is forecasting exports will drop 15 percent year on year in the second quarter, compared with a 13.3 percent fall in the first quarter.

The second quarter is usually a busy season for container business at Chinese ports, China’s port association said last month, but growth in container traffic has been crimped by a slowdown in global logistics and capacity cuts at shipping companies.

It estimates that container traffic could fall by 10 percent to 15 percent in the second quarter. (SD-Agencies)