Global air travel won’t recover from the COVID-19 crisis until 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced Tuesday.

That’s a year later than the airline body’s previous projection.

The body, which represents 290 airlines, blamed the sluggish recovery on a number of factors, including a lack of consumer confidence, the decline in business travel, and fresh coronavirus spikes in the United States and elsewhere.

The revised baseline forecast is that international passenger traffic will drop 55 percent in 2020, compared to 2019. Back in April, the IATA had predicted the drop to be just 46 percent.

Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62 percent next year, but will still be down almost 30 percent compared to pre-COVID times, with a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels not on the cards until four years from now.

“Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and CEO in a statement. “What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying.”

Unsurprisingly, short-haul travel is expected to recover faster than long-haul — due to passenger comfort levels, but also because international markets remain largely closed.

The British government made a surprise U-turn on its U.K.-Spain travel corridor recently, reinstating with immediate effect its 14-day quarantine for all travelers arriving from the popular tourist destination, following a rise in coronavirus cases in the country.

In terms of countries’ domestic traffic, China’s airlines are leading the recovery, with traffic down 35.5 percent in June compared to the same period in 2019, up from a 46.3 percent decline in May.

The IATA says that scientific advances in fighting COVID-19, including the development of a successful vaccine, could allow for a speedier recovery. But for now, the future is looking bleak.

“In many parts of the world infections are still rising,” said IATA’s de Juniac. “All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy.”

With airlines struggling financially, governments will need to continue relief measures to stop carriers going under, said the airline body.

Words to Learn 相关词汇

【可能】kěnéng on the cards possible or likely

【破产】pòchǎn go under suffer defeat or destruction, fail

国际航空运输协会上周二宣布，全球航空业要到2024年才能从新冠肺炎危机中恢复。

这比该机构之前的预测晚了一年。该机构将航空业复苏乏力归咎于一系列因素，包括消费者信心不足、商务旅行减少以及美国和其他地区新冠疫情重新抬头。该机构代表290家航空公司。修正后的基本预测是，2020年国际客运量将比2019年下降55%。今年4月，该机构曾预测下降幅度仅为46%。

根据该机构预计，明年的航空客运量将增长62%，但仍比疫情之前下降约30%，可能需要四年才能全面恢复到疫情之前的水平。

该机构理事长兼首席执行官亚历山大•德朱尼亚克在一份声明中表示：

“客运量在4月份触底，但回暖力度一直很弱。我们看到的改善来自国内航空。”

不出所料，短途旅行预计将比长途旅行恢复得更快 —— 一方面是由于乘客的舒适度，另一方面也是因为国际航线市场仍基本关闭。

在西班牙新冠肺炎确诊病例数量上升后，英国政府最近对来自西班牙旅客的入境政策出现180度大转弯，立即恢复对所有从该热门旅游目的地抵达的旅客实施14天隔离。

在各国国内客运量方面，中国航空公司引领复苏，6月份客运量同比下降35.5%，低于5月份46.3%的降幅。

国际航空运输协会表示，在抗击新冠肺炎方面取得的科学进展，包括疫苗成功研制，可能会让航空业更快复苏。但目前来看前景不乐观。

国际航空运输协会的德朱尼亚克说：

“在世界许多地方，感染人数仍在上升。所有这些都表明，航空业和全球经济将面临更长的复苏期，也将承受更多痛苦。”

该机构表示，随着航空公司陷入财务困境，各国政府将需要继续采取救助措施，以防止航空公司破产。

(chinadaily.com.cn)