THE coronavirus pandemic will end up costing Americans US$16 trillion, far more than anyone predicted when the virus first emerged in the United States back in March, according to a new study released Monday.

The study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, was co-authored by former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and Harvard University economist David Cutler. Summers was also a top economic adviser to former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton and is a former president of Harvard.

Their estimated cost includes a theoretical estimate for the value of a human life, and is spread out over the next decade. It also relies on an estimate that the eventual U.S. death toll from the pandemic will more than triple by the end of next year.

But US$16 trillion is still an eye-popping number, and underscores the long-term impacts of the novel coronavirus and the U.S.’s inconsistent attempts to contain it. The study is listed in the medical publication as a viewpoint, and does not appear to have been peer-reviewed.

The coronavirus is “the greatest threat to prosperity and well-being the United States has encountered since the Great Depression,” the authors write.

If the study is correct, the coronavirus’ eventual impact could be four times the size of the damage done by the 2008 housing bust and subsequent Great Recession. The total cost of the pandemic — including more than 10 weeks of near total lockdown across most of the country, which caused the GDP in second quarter to drop by more than a third — will eclipse the money the United States has spent on every war since Sept. 11, 2001, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, the study says.

About half of the price tag, US$8.6 trillion, is driven by the long-term health implications and costs for those who contract COVID-19, as well as statistical estimate for the loss of life.

Based on the current death rate, the coronavirus pandemic is likely to lead to a total of 625,000 premature deaths in the United States, the study estimates. It pegs the total cost to society of each death at US$7 million, citing a review from earlier this year of statistical and health policy research on the matter.

The rest of the coronavirus’ economic toll comes in the form of reduced economic output, which the authors peg at US$7.6 trillion, relying on previous estimate from the Congressional Budget Office.(SD-Agencies)