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在线翻译:
szdaily -> Speak Shenzhen -> 
幸存者偏差
    2020-12-03  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

Meaning:

“幸存者” means “survivor,” and “偏差” means “bias.” Translated from the English term “survivorship bias,” it refers to a type of selection bias where the results, or survivors, of a particular outcome are disproportionately evaluated. Those who “failed,” or did not survive, might even be ignored. Focusing on the survivors can result in a false estimate of probability. Survivorship bias was famously addressed by statistician Abraham Wald to protect fighter planes and approximate formulas for economic index numbers. During WWII, the U.S. military called on Wald to help them determine which parts of the planes they should reinforce. Initially, military engineers wanted to reinforce those places where surviving planes had bullet holes, but Wald pointed out the loophole in their logic. A plane could get shot multiple times in the wings, tail and cockpit, and still fly. It was the rest of the plane that needed reinforcement.

Example:

A: 我每天上下班地铁里的人都挤得水泄不通,为什么地铁公司还亏钱?

Wǒ měitiān shàngxiàbān dìtiě lǐ de rén dōu jǐ de shuǐxièbùtōng,wèishénme dìtiě gōngsī hái kuīqián?

Each day when I commute to and back from work, the Metro trains are fully packed. Why is the Metro company still losing money?

B: 这是典型的幸存者偏差,因为你总是高峰期出行,而且乘坐的线路也是去往市中心写字楼集中的区域,其实白天非高峰期地铁车厢里人很少。

Zhè shì diǎnxíng de xìngcúnzhě piānchā,yīnwèi nǐ zǒngshì gāofēngqī chūxíng,érqiě chéngzuò de xiànlù yěshì qùwǎng shìzhōngxīn xiězìlóu jízhōng de qūyù,qíshí báitiān fēi gāofēngqī dìtiě chēxiāng lǐ rén hěn shǎo。

That’s a typical example of survivorship bias. You always ride the Metro during rush hour and take the route to downtown where the office buildings are. In fact, there are very few passengers on the Metro during daytime non-rush hours.

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