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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
Stock bubble warnings go unheeded
    2021-02-23  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

AMERICA’S love affair with stocks is deepening as everyone from frenetic day traders to staid institutions dive further into the market.

Equity funds are drawing fresh money at an unprecedented pace and hedge funds are boosting their stock exposure to a record. Companies themselves are re-emerging as big buyers, with share repurchases doubling from a year ago.

The affection underscores growing confidence in an economic recovery, buttressed by government support and vaccines. While aspects of the craze — the growing obsession with penny stocks and options, primarily — are the basis for daily warnings about a bubble, bulled-up positioning is proving a sturdy backbone for the rally.

Up 75 percent from March, the S&P 500’s gain dwarfs all previous bull markets at this stage of the cycle since the 1930s.

“It’s been truly amazing,” said Brian Culpepper, a money manager at James Investment Research. “Everyone just thinks the stock market is going to go, go, go,” he added. “Whether it’s herd mentality, or fear of being left behind, that’s what you’re seeing.”

Dated from the last bear-market bottom, the boom cycle is young — 11 months, versus five years for the median bull market. But its velocity makes up for the age. The S&P 500’s current peak-to-trough gain already eclipses three other full bull markets. If history is any guide, this one is likely more than half done as the median return of the 13 previous bull cycles was 126 percent.

Indeed, a majority of money managers in a Bank of America poll this month viewed the current bull market as being in a late stage.

“I don’t think we’re at bubble levels yet, but there are certainly some red flags that would indicate folks are all-in on stocks and risk,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the U.S. SPDR exchange-traded fund business at State Street Global Advisors. “You need that euphoric moment for the bull market to top.”

That danger has yet to register with investors. Last week, they poured US$36 billion into funds focused on U.S. equities, the biggest inflow in more than two decades, according to data compiled by EPFR, a unit of Informa Financial Intelligence.

Hedge funds are trimming bearish bets while raising their bullish wagers. Their net leverage, a measure of industry risk appetite that takes into account long versus short positions, climbed to a record this month, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs. (SD-Agencies)

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