IMPROVED global demand and a favorable base effect are likely to have kept China’s exports buoyant in March, while higher oil prices will have been boosted its imports, a recent poll showed yesterday.

Exports are expected to have risen 35.5 percent in March from a year earlier, according to a median forecast in a poll of 27 economists. The data will be released today.

The number was down from 60.6 percent jump in the January-February period, as the year-ago level suffered a deeper contraction as the coronavirus outbreak in China passed through its peak.

China’s trade surplus is expected to be US$52.05 billion in March, following a surplus of US$103.25 billion in the first two months of the year, according to the poll.

The rebound of overseas demand for Chinese goods continued with the recovery of global economy amid greater vaccination efforts. Surveys showed U.S. factory activity picked up in March amid strong growth in new orders, and the growth in eurozone monthly factory activity was the fastest on record.

Official and private manufacturing surveys in China pointed to robust growth, with export orders returning to growth amid improving foreign demand.

Imports likely rose 23.3 percent in March versus a year ago, the poll showed, slightly higher than the 22.2 percent gain in the first two months of the year.

“Import growth might have stayed solid in March on the back of more working days [this year relative to last year], healthy underlying domestic demand, and also higher oil prices,” Goldman Sachs’ economists said in a note.

Some analysts noted the resurgent COVID-19 infections abroad and constraints in global trade have left some companies grappling with prolonged delivery timeframes and surging prices of raw materials.

(SD-Agencies)