THE Philippine and Malaysian economies continued contracting in the first quarter of the year, adding to signs that some of Southeast Asia’s biggest nations are struggling amid a resurgence in coronavirus cases.

The quarterly figures released yesterday — which came in below all forecasts for the Philippines — add to recent weaker signals from top regional economies Indonesia and Thailand.

All four countries have faced a surge of COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, part of the broader challenge across Asia’s developing economies to stem a renewed outbreak, particularly in India. Among Southeast Asia’s biggest economies, only Singapore and Vietnam, which have been able to contain the pandemic, have shown year-on-year expansions in the first quarter.

While all those countries expect to see full-year growth, a weak first quarter has tempered the outlook for Southeast Asia. The Asian Development Bank late last month lowered its 2021 forecast for the region to 4.4 percent and reduced projections for Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Philippine gross domestic product contracted 4.2 percent in the first quarter, compared to the median 3.2 percent drop expected in a Bloomberg survey, while Malaysia shrank 0.5 percent, compared with a 0.9 percent estimate.

Indonesia last week reported a 0.74 percent contraction for the first quarter, against an expected decline of 0.65 percent.

Thailand, which is expected to show a contraction when it reports first quarter figures next week, recently lowered its full-year outlook, with the finance ministry citing poor tourism activity.

The Philippines is expected to manage one of Southeast Asia’s slowest recoveries this year. A return to stricter curbs in its capital Manila and other key economic areas threatens the government’s goal of at least 6.5 percent growth this year, which is up for review. It’s also expected to drive unemployment, which has yet to show considerable improvement.

Malaysia’s GDP release yesterday came a day after Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin announced nationwide movement restrictions to stem the latest surge in cases. Moving forward, the economy will continue to benefit from strong external demand and improving domestic conditions, central bank Governor Nor Shamsiah Yunus said in a briefing.

Indonesia, the region’s biggest economy, expects to grow this quarter at the fastest pace since 2008 as the government turns to fresh stimulus programs to lift domestic demand. Thailand’s Finance Ministry, the first of the nation’s agencies to revise its outlook, last month cut its economic growth forecast for the second time this year.

(SD-Agencies)