CHINA is set to increase pork imports in the coming months, industry participants said, after losses for farmers last year in the world’s top pork producer caused a reduction in hog output.

Pork is by far China’s favorite meat and surging prices have driven up inflation in the world’s second-largest economy. The country produces about half of the world’s output and fluctuations in the country influence hog and meat prices globally.

Chinese pork prices surged in October by 51.8% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said, even as third-quarter output rose by 0.7% from a year earlier.

Pork prices will stay high in 2023 because of the lower supply, according to 10 industry analysts, farmers, and feed and genetics suppliers, though they cautioned demand may be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We all need to watch China. We expect increased sales due to their pork shortfall,” said Jim Long, chief executive at Canada’s Genesus Inc., a supplier of breeding pigs to China, in a note last week.

Live hog prices rallied about 78% from June to 28.50 yuan (US$3.98) per kg Oct. 19, the most since March 2021, according to data from Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., and while dropping since then they remain above historical averages.

The government has blamed farmers holding pigs back from slaughter to fatten them up more for the higher prices.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has repeatedly said breeding capacity is sufficient.

Plunging pork demand and high feed costs from June 2021 until July this year caused farmers to incur losses of as much as 600 yuan per hog. Farmers sold off herds, culled more sows than normal or slowed production by not mating females to curb their losses.                         (SD-Agencies)