Wu Guangqiang

    AS the trouble-stricken Year of the Rabbit hobbles to an end, we prepare to enter the Year of the Dragon. Amid a bleak global economy and a challenge-ridden domestic situation, the coming Year of the Dragon will be even bumpier, though the dragon symbolizes power and wealth in Chinese culture.

    Internationally, 2011 saw turbulence both natural and man-made.

    On March 11, a massive 9-magnitude earthquake hit Japan, which triggered a powerful tsunami, leaving 15,840 people dead. The quake induced a meltdown at Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant, plunging Japan and neighboring countries into panic. The turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa ushered in a new geopolitical tectonic movement. The NATO-led Libyan War toppled strongman Gadhafi but left the country with an uncertain future.

    The entire world has been affected by a lingering economic recession. The United States is still suffering high unemployment rates, swelling debts and mounting federal deficits. The EU is struggling to keep itself together by desperately fixing sovereign debt crises troubling many of its member countries.

    At home, 2011 will be remembered as a year of transition from red-hot economic growth to a slower but more efficient development.

    China’s decades of breakneck growth had strained to breaking point — comparative advantage is disappearing with soaring labor costs and natural resources; social unrest is mounting owing to a fast-inflating asset bubble, widening wealth disparity and widespread corruption.

    On July 30, a high-speed train crashed into another in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, killing 40 passengers and injuring at least 210, symbolizing that it was time to slow down so that necessary lessons could be drawn.

    If the train crash signified the necessity for a slowdown in economic development, another incident spelled the urgency of rebuilding China’s moral and ethical system, which had been in decline as people began to worship money. On the night of Oct. 13 a 2-year-old girl was run over by two vans and ignored by 18 passers-by while lying in a pool of blood. Her death resulted in nationwide soul searching.

    In 2012, the Chinese Government will be faced with the following problems: a possible plunge in exports, which in turn will affect tens of thousands of businesses; the wayward CPI index, which has dropped from its peak of 6.5 percent increase in July 2011 but may rebound at any time; and obstinately high housing prices.

    The annual Central Economic Work Conference — a top-level mechanism to lay down key economic policies for the coming year — has set “stable growth” as the keynote for the new year.

    The double-digit growth rate will be replaced by a milder one of 7 to 8 percent. Given the global recession, this rate will be good enough. Above all, if it is made best use of, the slower rate will conduce to an economic transition that bears on China’s more healthy and sustainable growth in the coming decades. But for China, the world’s most populous country, a growth rate below 6 percent may produce a lot of fallout.

    Personally, I hope to see positive progress in such key aspects: The real economy must be boosted — the overheating speculation in the real estate sector in the previous years has hurt the Chinese economy. Measures such as tax cut should be taken to support small and medium private businesses, which are the most dynamic and competitive part of the Chinese economy. More should be done to make the Chinese economy less dependent on exports but more reliant on the domestic market. Moreover, social equity should be given more attention.

    As scheduled, 2012 will see a change in leadership at the top. By previous experience, the new leadership will give more momentum to reform and development. So, I am confident that the Year of the Dragon will bring us more encouragement than disappointment.

    (The author is an English tutor and a freelance writer. He can be reached at jw368@163.com.)