Xu Qinduo

    xuqinduo@gmail.com

    GROWING evidence points to Indian intervention in Sri Lanka’s recent presidential elections, where former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was considered pro-China, was defeated. India encouraged several lawmakers to defect from Rajapaksa’s party and brought the usually fractious opposition parties together behind Maithripala Sirisena, who, as a result, won the election. The outcome was shocking to many, especially China.

    New President Sirisena received the Indian ambassador immediately after his victory. In comparison, he did not meet the Chinese ambassador until five days later. Sirisena has talked about reviewing infrastructure projects supported by China, indicating an effort to distance the Sri Lankan Government from China.

    The new president sent his foreign minister to New Delhi last week and his first official overseas visit next month will be to India. He said India would be his “first, main” foreign policy concern.

    The way India is flexing its diplomatic muscle in Sri Lanka is making many question if New Delhi is going against its principle of noninterference in other countries’ internal affairs. India, China and Myanmar were the original advocates of the well-known “Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence,” or “Panchsheel” as it is known in India, part of which has been nonintervention in each other’s domestic affairs. Is the Narendra Modi government abandoning one of India’s fundamental principles of foreign affairs?

    In a sense, what India has done in Sri Lanka actually appears more in line with the U.S. style of regime change to governments they loathe. Are the Indians taking a page from Washington’s playbook? It’s likely. India threw its support behind the U.S. in 2013 to support a resolution from the U.N. Human Rights Council targeting the behaviors of the Sri Lankan military in the war against the Tamil Tigers. On the surface, the resolution was about human rights, but on a deeper level, it was a joint action by India and the U.S. against former President Rajapaksa’s government, which enjoyed a close business relationship with China.

    The Modi government is also burying another critical part of Indian foreign policy: the practice of nonalignment. Since Modi came to power in May of last year, India has been forging closer ties with Japan and Vietnam, both of which have been involved in bitter territorial disputes with China. At the invitation of Modi, U.S. President Barack Obama is visiting India while Modi was in Washington only four months ago in September.

    Many believe that the Indians are a people with a strong spirit of independence and that they would refuse to dovetail Obama’s “pivot to Asia” strategy, a plan designed to balance the growing influence of China. But the fact is that New Delhi relishes playing second fiddle to Washington against the rise of China.

    China experts say things will calm down and that Beijing will overcome the political aftershocks of the recent Sri Lanka election. Beijing seems also to believe that the relationship between China and the island country will be back on track as time goes on. After all, politics aside, the new government in Colombo will have to face the reality of economic growth and creating jobs for its people. In addition, China is now probably the only country awash with cash to fund giant infrastructure projects inside Sri Lanka.

    Of course, this could all be overly optimistic, as the scenario in Sri Lanka is more challenging than in other situations where China-bashing opposition parties usually shift their tones after winning elections. In Sri Lanka, there’s the India factor. Together with Washington, New Delhi is likely to stand firm in setting the agenda in Sri Lanka to thwart Chinese endeavor to build the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, where Sri Lanka is an important stop. Don’t forget, Sirisena owes his presidency to India.

    (The author is a current affairs commentator with China Radio International.)