Xu Qinduo

    xuqinduo@gmail.com

    IMMEDIATELY after the news of the massacre of at least 129 innocent people in Paris, landmark buildings around the world were lit up in France’s national colors of red, white and blue — a manifestation of strong solidarity with and support for the Parisians. National leaders expressed their condemnation of the atrocity and readiness to help.

    The global unity in praying for Paris and standing with France is all good in rightfully denouncing terrorism and offering the necessary comfort to the French, but it is not enough. There needs to be changes in the fight against the Islamic State, the powerful terror organization that claimed responsibility for the cold killings.

    So how is France to be changed in the wake of the latest Paris attacks? How is Europe to be affected by the terror incident? And most importantly, how will it affect the fight against IS in Syria and Iraq?

    For France, it’s obvious that its public security work has totally failed and it needs to reinforce its intelligence gathering in thwarting similar attacks in the future. Given the storming of the offices of a cartoon newspaper in January by terrorists that resulted in the deaths of 12 people, few expected another senseless massacre in Paris so soon.

    Europe-wise, political landscapes are likely to be impacted, with more support going to parties on the center to the right; the solution to the rising refugee crisis is expected to be further complicated. What if there are fighters within the asylum seekers with intent to do harm?

    What is especially critical to watch is whether France will pursue a more direct approach in fighting IS, and in a change of heart, to work with the Syrian Government to better coordinate the campaign.

    Despite the recent losses on the battlefields in Iraq and Syria, partly thanks to the involvement of Russia, IS is demonstrating resilience and a strong ability to organize attacks in other countries and regions such as in Egypt and France. IS is also believed to have downed the Russian airline from Sinai Peninsula, killing 224 people.

    But how is IS so powerful after a year of successive and coordinated bombings by the United States and its partners?

    That’s the key issue at the evolving Syrian crisis. Washington, while launching air strikes on IS targets, has the concern of assisting, inadvertently, the Bashar al-Assad government, which is fighting both IS and the opposition forces. That concern is commonly shared by the U.S. allies, in particular regional powers such as Turkey and the Gulf countries, who are equally, if not more, eager to topple the Assad government than defeating IS.

    Here’s the strange logic: the enemy of my enemy remains my enemy. But this is the Middle East, where too many factors are at play at the same time. On the surface, IS is the priority target for the U.S.-led coalition. But on the ground, things could be a bit different, as revealed in the accusation that Turkey and some Gulf countries are arming radical groups.

    U.S. President Barack Obama is reluctant to fight another war in the Middle East. After all, the threat of IS is far away from the U.S. mainland. And that explains why there are only air campaigns but “no boots on the ground.”

    A half-hearted campaign against IS failed to see the demise of IS. Instead, there’s a prolonged battle in Syria, resulting in a mounting number of people flocking to Europe.

    France is seen as the most active country attempting to depose Assad, but even French President Francois Hollande didn’t launch direct air strikes against IS until September. IS indicated that their attacks in Paris were revenge for French air strikes.

    In response to the attacks in Paris, Hollande vowed to be “merciless” with the nation’s foes. Will Paris be ready to fight back with more direct involvement against IS? Or even send troops on the ground? Will Paris soften its stance on Assad and talk to or even cooperate with him in the fight against IS?

    As a member of the military organization, NATO, France enjoys the right to invoke the collective defense provisions. So there’s the chance that NATO could get involved in the fight against IS, which will make the war a full-blown one.

    In any case, the consequences and impact of the Paris attacks, the deadliest on France since WWII, should unfold soon.

    (The author is a current affairs commentator with China Radio International and a visiting scholar at the University of Melbourne.)