Xu Qinduo

    xuqinduo@gmail.com

    EMERGING from the first high-level meeting between Russia and Turkey since the downing of a Russian jet on Nov. 24, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said dismissively he “heard nothing new” from his Turkish counterpart. So the feud goes on instead of revealing any signs of dying down.

    In his yearly state of the nation address, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “If someone thinks they can commit war crimes, kill our people and get away with it, suffering nothing but a ban on tomato imports, as well as a few restrictions in construction or other industries, they’re delusional.”

    So why are the two major players in the Syrian crisis at such odds and seemingly unable to move past this incident? How far and deep will the rivalry go?

    On the surface, the whole incident is about a disputed violation of Turkish airspace by the Russian jet and the apparent overreaction of bringing it down and killing the pilot. But the altercation goes deeper than that.

    Turkey has been angry about Russia’s sudden but strategic involvement in the Syrian crisis in late September. The Russian participation quickly changed the balance of power on the battlefield and stabilized the Syrian Government, which Ankara has been working to overthrow. There appears no way to overcome the conflict of interests between Moscow and Ankara.

    Turkey is also irritated with the Russian bombing of areas controlled by their so-called “brothers and sisters” — the Turkmen Brigade, a rebel group that is said to be an important tool for Turkey to influence the future Syrian government.

    Without the settlement of those stark differences and grievances — not to mention their history of bitter rivalry, it appears unlikely the countries can diffuse their tension in its entirety any time soon.

    Russia is demanding a full apology from Turkey, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a strongman with a tough image in the Middle East region, may find it impossible to offer. Similarly, Putin, who prides no less on his image of being tough, would not let the event go without punishing Ankara.

    Putin said that his country’s response to the attack would extend beyond clamping down on tourism, limited economic sanctions on agricultural products and canceling labor contracts already announced.

    Turkey is clearly on the defense not only from Russia’s pressure. What also puts the Turks in an uncomfortable situation is the lack of adequate support from its Western allies, many of whom blame Turkey for the unnecessary action of shooting down the jet, which at most was in Turkish airspace for only 17 seconds and without ill intent.

    On fighting IS, European nations are aware that Turkey, while joining the U.S.-led coalition against IS, is only pretending to do so while in reality has a different agenda. Compared with IS, Turkey is more concerned with the rise of Kurdish forces, which play a major role in driving back the spread of IS in northern Iraq and Syria. The Kurds within Turkey have a history of fighting for independence. An autonomous Kurdish region or even an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq and Syria would thus spell a big threat to Turkey.

    The Kurds have repeatedly accused Turkey of protecting IS against them. IS, while not necessarily a friend, is certainly a useful enemy to Ankara.

    Now Russia is working hard to reveal the close connection between Turkey and IS oil. In a high-profile event, Russian defense ministry invited hundreds of reporters to view satellite images of a long line of oil trucks streaming into Turkey from an IS-controlled area.

    While it may be difficult to find hard evidence of President Erdogan and his family’s direct involvement in the indecent deals, there seems no denial that Turkey is buying oil from the terror organization and it would be incredible if Ankara was unaware of this.

    That may also explain why Turkey has failed to close the border with Syria, which has frustrated even the Americans as arms and extremists are channeled to IS through Turkish territory.

    Ankara denies the accusation that it colludes with the terrorists. But even the Turkish militants, which they train and support, look more like a terror group than regular rebels when they cold-bloodedly shot dead the Russian pilot who was parachuting in an emergency situation.

    After first direct contact with Russian officials in wake of the incident, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu expressed the desire to normalize relations with Russia.

    But their Black Sea neighbor is probably not on the same page and won’t allow relations to be fully restored without meting out due punishment. The problems created by the Turks themselves simply can’t be wished away.

    (The author is a current affairs commentator with China Radio International and a visiting scholar at the University of Melbourne.)