Winton Dong

    dht620@sina.com

    ACCORDING to a recent report by the U.S. Navy Times, the U.S. National Security Council, led by President Barack Obama, has for many times criticized the Pentagon for its agitating words towards China describing it as a major rivalry or confrontation state.

    Such a report not only reveals the discrepancy between the U.S. president and the country’s military force in defining its relations with China, but also reminds me of the Thucydides Trap about 2,500 years ago.

    A book written by Greek historian Thucydides (460-400 B.C.) — “History of the Peloponnesian War” — recounts the war between Athens and Sparta in the 5th century B.C. At that time, classical Athens gradually turned out to be an emerging power of civilization, philosophy, history and architecture. The dramatic rise of Athens shocked Sparta, the established land power on the Peloponnese. Fear and threat resulted in competition, confrontation, and finally military conflict between them. At the end of 30 years of war, both states were destroyed.

    As we know, as time advances, no modern doctor would base his or her medical practice totally on the writings of ancient practitioners. But for some reason Western scholars seem to think that whatever Thucydides said 2,500 years ago still applies today. Graham Allison, a professor at the Kennedy School of Harvard University, wrote two articles in the Financial Times in August 2012 and The New York Times in July 2013, cautioning China and the United States not to fall into the Thucydides Trap, where an emerging power causes fear and threat in an established power and finally leads to a war and destruction.

    In his articles, Allison dates back to the 16th century until the present and charts out how 11 out of the last 15 major international conflicts (such as World War I, World War II, and the former Soviet Union’s conflicts with neighboring Eastern European countries in the 1950s and 60s) have resulted in wars. With that in mind, he claims that the relationship between China and the U.S. is fraught with peril, with war being the inevitable conclusion.

    Frankly speaking, the Thucydides Trap is really a dangerous diplomatic trap for emerging powers and a wonderful pretext for established powers. While the U.S. can always say that its China policy is based on normal security concerns, China will have no choice but to shoulder the responsibility of souring bilateral relations. The term has become a catchword for many Western commentators because they want to put rising countries like China in a disadvantageous or scapegoat position to allow Western nations to occupy both historical and moral high grounds.

    In my point of view, the Thucydides Trap is not etched in stone and is surely avoidable. In the 21st century, China and the U.S., as two of the most important economic entities in the world, should have the political wisdom and diplomatic tactics to avoid falling into such a trap, especially against the backdrop of ever-deepening economic globalization and interdependence.

    If we review history, China has never become threat to other countries during the past thousands of years. Instead, the country has suffered deeply from hegemonism and bullying by Western powers since the late Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). As a responsible country, China now just wants to realize its dream of national rejuvenation, and to bid farewell to its humiliating history and truly become a nation with economic strength and harmonious relations.

    Meanwhile, today we are living in a world that is far more connected than in past generations. Better connectivity and faster communication allow instant access for policymakers to defuse whatever tensions are in the air. Moreover, the enormity of trade between China and the U.S. also counts a lot. For example, instability in the Chinese stock market will send strong shock waves to the U.S. And an interest rate hike proposed by the U.S. Federal Reserve will also deeply influence the Chinese economy.

    Under these circumstances, it is hard to believe that leaders from both countries will deliberately choose a war to settle their disputes. Even a limited conflict between them will be extremely costly, bringing catastrophe to the global economy and worsening regional stability.

    In a word, the development of China and the United States is not a “zero-sum game.” As President Xi Jinping once said, “The Asia-Pacific region is big enough to allow the common development of both countries. The bilateral relationship should be based on hope rather than fear, trust rather than doubt.” With joint efforts, mutual understanding and more communication, I am confident that the two sides can see the rejuvenation of China, further rise of the U.S. and a better and more peaceful world on the same global stage.

    (The author is the editor-in-chief of the Shenzhen Daily and guest professor of Shenzhen University with a Ph.D. from the Journalism and Communication School of Wuhan University.)