Winton Dong

    dht620@sina.com

    WHILE on his way to attend the 24th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima, Peru, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hastily stopped in New York City on Nov. 18 and had a 90-minute unofficial meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

    Such a talk makes Abe the first state leader Trump has met after his U.S. presidential election victory on Nov. 9. According to insiders, Abe’s main purpose of visiting Trump was to make up for his former mistake. Actually, Japan pinned all hope on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to win the election. So Abe had a friendly meeting only with Hillary in New York during this September’s U.N. Assembly, but totally ignored the existence of Trump at that time.

    Since it was an unofficial meeting (Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. president on Jan. 20, 2017), no agenda or substantial news was released. In my opinion, their talk was very possibly focused on three issues, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact, the military alliance between the two countries and the expenditure sharing of the American army garrisoned in Japan.

    Frankly speaking, all the three issues have something to do with China. The TPP is strongly supported by U.S. President Barack Obama and the Japanese Government, but China has been promoting the creation of a broader and alternative Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). As for the military alliance and U.S. army stationed in Japan, both are measures aiming to contain China.

    After their meeting in New York, Abe regarded Trump as a leader “with whom I can have great confidence in building mutual trust.” However, it seems that Abe is getting ahead of himself and counting his chickens before they are hatched.

    On Nov. 21, three days after the meeting, Trump vowed that the United States would signal its withdrawal from the TPP on his first day in the White House, one of six immediate steps aimed at “putting America first.” If such a vow turns into reality, Abe and even President Obama will be totally disappointed. The 12-nation TPP pact was signed in February this year in Auckland, New Zealand, but is not yet in force. Trump said the pact would seriously damage the U.S. economy and jobs. On the other hand, the FTAAP supported by China is able to combine the original TPP members and all countries within the Asia Pacific, so as to put an end to economic fragmentation in the region.

    Since containing China is their common goal, the military alliance between the United States and Japan, even with South Korea included, will see little change under Trump’s leadership. On Nov. 23, supported by the U.S., South Korea signed an agreement with Japan to share military intelligence, which reflects the Cold War mentality that could heighten tension in the region. Moreover, Japan is also reportedly considering the deployment of the THAAD system in its territory, following South Korea.

    On the other hand, Trump has also suggested that Japan defend itself rather than rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella. These words send a signal that in spite of frictions and quarrels, Sino-American relations won’t stray from the main track. Being two of the world’s largest economies, trade volume between China and the United States reached US$558.4 billion in 2015. Neither of them can afford to lose such a great business partner. As a successful businessman and a realistic politician, what Trump pursues is to enjoy more dividends from the world while trying to undertake as few obligations as possible. Moreover, as a newcomer on the global political stage, Trump is facing piled-up international and domestic problems. Under these circumstances, intensified confrontations with China and falling into the Thucydides Trap are surely not the right choice.

    As for the sharing of military expenditures, it is also a hard nut to crack. According to statistics, Japan already is paying 75 percent of the American troops’ total costs in the country. However, Trump wants Japan to cover all of the expenditures of American soldiers on Japanese soil. Such a demand may further arouse the antagonism of Japanese citizens. For many years, Japanese people have been protesting against the U.S. garrisons in Okinawa, Yokosuka, Sasebo and other places within the country. Rape cases and other nefarious crimes committed by U.S. soldiers stationed in Japan also happen frequently. For example, on April 29 this year, an American solider stationed in Okinawa raped and killed a 20-year-old Japanese woman. The atrocity led to massive protests nationwide in Japan.

    After the meeting between Trump and Abe in New York, even American media commented that the relationship between the United States and a strong country like China is not a “zero-sum game” and suggested that Japan work as a stabilizer, not a troublemaker, in keeping regional peace and stability.

    Is the Japanese leader courageous enough to face the music and sagacious enough to make the right decision?

    (The author is the editor-in-chief of the Shenzhen Daily and guest professor of Shenzhen University with a Ph.D. from the Journalism and Communication School of Wuhan University.)