CHINA’S massive export engine sputtered for the second year in a row in 2016, with shipments falling in the face of persistently weak global demand and officials voicing fears of a trade war with the United States that is clouding the outlook for 2017.

    In one week, China’s leaders will see if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump makes good on a campaign pledge to brand China a currency manipulator on his first day in office, and starts to follow up on a threat to slap high tariffs on Chinese goods.

    Even if the Trump administration takes no concrete action immediately, analysts say the specter of deteriorating U.S.-China trade and political ties is likely to weigh on the confidence of exporters and investors worldwide.

    The world’s largest trading nation posted gloomy data Friday, with 2016 exports falling 7.7 percent and imports down 5.5 percent. The export drop was the second annual decline in a row and the worst since the depths of the global crisis in 2009. It will be tough for foreign trade to improve this year, especially if the inauguration of Trump and other major political changes limit the growth of China’s exports due to greater protectionist measures, the country’s customs agency said Friday.

    “The trend of anti-globalization is becoming increasingly evident, and China is the biggest victim of this trend,” customs spokesman Huang Songping said. “We will pay close attention to foreign trade policy after Trump is inaugurated president,” Huang said.

    China’s trade surplus with the United States was US$366 billion in 2015, according to U.S. customs data, which Trump could seize on in a bid to bring China to the negotiating table to press for concessions, economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a recent research note.

    A sustained trade surplus of more than US$20 billion against the United States is one of three criteria used by the U.S. Treasury to designate another country as a currency manipulator.

    China is likely to point out that its own data showed the surplus fell to US$250.79 billion in 2016 from US$260.91 billion in 2015, but that may get short shrift in Washington.

    “Our worry is that Trump’s stance towards China’s trade could bring about long-term structural weakness in China’s exports,” economists at ANZ said in a note.

    China’s December exports fell by a more-than-expected 6.1 percent year on year, while imports beat forecasts slightly, growing 3.1 percent on its strong demand for commodities which has helped buoy global resources prices.

    An unexpected 0.1 percent rise in shipments in November, while scant, had raised hopes that China was catching up to an export improvement being seen in some other Asian economies.

    China reported a trade surplus of US$40.82 billion for December, versus November’s US$44.61 billion.(SD-Agencies)