THAILAND’S economy might have expanded at the same pace in October-December as in the previous quarter, as higher government spending offset tepid domestic demand and a drop in the number of tourists.

    Growth in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy has lagged regional peers since 2014, when the army seized power to end months of street protests. The junta has ramped up spending and taken measures in a bid to boost growth.

    Exports, a key growth driver, grew in 2016 for the first time in four years, but Thailand faces rising global trade protectionism and capital outflow risks as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to hike rates again this year.

    The median forecast in a Reuters poll about the last quarter of 2016 was for an 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted rise in gross domestic product (GDP) compared with July-September, when growth was also 0.6 percent.

    On an annual basis, growth was forecast at 3.0 percent in October-December after 3.2 percent in the previous quarter.

    That would mean full-year 2016 growth at 3.2 percent, up from 2.8 percent in 2015.

    For 2017, growth is seen at 3.3 percent, the poll showed.

    The National Economic and Social Development Board, which compiles GDP data, has forecast 2017 GDP growth of 3.0-4.0 percent. It will give a new projection Monday.

    In October-December, exports grew 3.6 percent from a year earlier, while public investment rose by 35 percent. Overall government spending in the fourth quarter was 9 percent above a year earlier.

    Pivotal tourism took a hit as a Thai crackdown on cheap tour packages slashed the number of tourists from China, Thailand’s biggest market, in 2016’s last quarter.

    Total tourist arrivals fell to 7.8 million in the quarter from 8.2 million in July-September.

    (SD-Agencies)