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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
Fed drives March hike expectations
    2017-03-09  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

    EARLY last week, financial markets saw just a 30 percent chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. But by Friday after a striking series of comments from Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, traders saw an 80 percent chance.

    Investors were aware that improving U.S. economic data, a stable global economy, a booming U.S. stock market and easy financial conditions, provided some justification for further Fed interest rates rises this year.

    But policymakers had to ensure that global markets were indeed ready for a rate increase as soon as its next policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and further rises later this year, after a series of false starts in 2015 and 2016.

    The U.S. central bank prefers to have market expectations aligned with its own policy plans. Of the 27 rises in interest rates of a quarter of a percentage point since 1991, only three occurred with a market probability forecast of less than 60 percent a month beforehand, Wells Fargo said.

    “We didn’t clearly see how the balance of risks was shifting, so they have to slap our faces, and say, ‘Look, you are missing the point’,” said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon.

    U.S. economic data had been improving in recent weeks as the Fed forecast, and the jump in U.S. stock prices, alongside improved consumer and business confidence readings, provided an opening to hike rates without overly rocking markets, public and private comments by Fed officials suggested.

    A series of previously scheduled speeches by Fed officials gave the Federal Reserve the platform it needed to alert markets before the traditional “black out” period went into effect ahead of the March 14-15 meeting. (SD-Agencies)

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