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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
Global economy in real danger if trade war escalates: poll
    2019-01-28  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

A SYNCHRONIZED global economic slowdown is under way and any escalation in the trade war would trigger a sharper downturn, according to latest polls of hundreds of economists from around the world.

That is a major shift in sentiment from just a year ago, when economists were optimistic about a significant global upturn. But an escalation in trade tensions and tightening financial conditions have hurt activity in most economies and dragged China’s growth last year to the weakest in 28 years.

Surveys over the past two years have repeatedly highlighted trade protectionism as one of the prominent downside risks for the global economy.

In the latest polls of more than 500 economists taken this month, growth this year was cut for 33 of 46 economies the respondents were asked about and left unchanged for 10. Predictions for only three smaller economies were marginally upgraded.

The outlook for inflation this year was trimmed for most economies too, with lower lows and lower highs.

Over half of nearly 270 economists who answered an additional question said a further escalation in the trade war will likely trigger an even sharper global economic slowdown this year.

The global economy is forecast to expand 3.5 percent this year, the second straight cut to the 2019 outlook after it was downgraded in the previous survey for the first time since polling began for that period in July 2017. In the last poll it was 3.6 percent.

That 3.5-percent lines up with the International Monetary Fund’s growth outlook released ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos. (SD-Agencies)

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