THE country’s trade engine likely remained struck in reverse in January, with imports and exports expected to fall for the second month in a row,.

Imports are expected to have fallen 10 percent in January from a year earlier, which would be the biggest decline since July 2016, according to the median estimate of 30 economists in a recent poll. That compared with a 7.6-percent drop in December.

China’s exports in January also likely contracted, though not as much. Outbound shipments are expected to have fallen 3.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with the previous month’s 4.4-percent decline.

A new round of Sino-U.S. talks began in Beijing on Monday as the world’s two largest economies renewed efforts to defuse their trade war. Negotiators are trying to reach a deal ahead of a March 1 deadline when U.S. tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent.

Most analysts believe a further suspension of the tariff hike will be the most likely outcome of the talks, with existing duties expected to be left largely intact for awhile longer, maintaining pressure on Chinese exporters while averting a strong near-term blow.

China’s overall trade surplus is seen to have shrunk sharply to US$33.5 billion in January from US$57.06 billion the previous month, according to the poll.

Many analysts said the contraction in Chinese imports has occurred mostly in the technology sector.

South Korea has been the hardest hit so far, given its large exposure to China and tech. South Korea’s exports shrank for a second straight month in January as faltering demand in China hit prices of memory chips.

Gross domestic product may grow 6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to a commentary in Economic Information Daily, slowing from 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018.(SD-Agencies)