FORGET Donald Trump’s trade war. It’s a deadly pig disease spreading through China that will really reshape the global soybean market for years to come.

Getting rid of the disease and rebuilding the herd in a nation that consumes half the world’s pork will take three to five years, curbing demand for soybeans used in feed, according to analysts.

Given China is the largest soybean importer and most of its shipments usually come from the United States, the oilseed has been the poster-child for the tit-for-tat tariff spat. While trade tensions have prompted China’s feed makers to curb the oilseed’s usage, it’s the pig virus that will upend the market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture and INTL FCStone Inc. are already forecasting a decline or slower growth in Chinese soy imports for the next couple of years.

“Today, African swine fever is the bigger story as it relates to demand,” said Corey Jorgenson, president of the grain unit of U.S. crop handler The Andersons Inc., which buys and sells corn, wheat and soybeans from American farmers. “It will impact us for a crop year or more. This is not a 2019 event.”

African swine fever, first spotted in Africa in the 1900s, kills most infected pigs within 10 days, although it isn’t known to harm humans. China has already culled more than a million pigs after 122 outbreaks in 30 provinces.

Cargill Inc., one of the top agriculture commodity traders, said quarterly earnings from animal nutrition and Chinese oilseed crushing were hit by the virus. Andersons also has soybean demand destruction built into its projections.

Pork production in China probably will decline 30 percent this year, a drop roughly the size of Europe’s entire annual supply, according to Rabobank, a lender to the agriculture industry.

The bank says it will take at least three years to rebuild the herd. Informa’s Agribusiness Intelligence is betting on three years, while brokerage FCStone expects at least five years.

The structure of China’s pork industry makes it “nearly impossible” to stop the spread of African swine fever, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for FCStone. That’s because a large part of the production and slaughter is in small family-owned operations. Many farmers who had the disease and tried to repopulate their herds ended up getting it again, according to Informa.

“We are seeing that the Chinese hog producer today is not repopulating those facilities because either they are afraid they are going to get African swine fever from a neighbor or it’s still in the building and they can’t get it cleaned,” said David Williams, director of global proteins at Informa.

Chinese soy imports dropped 14 percent in the first quarter, partly as the trade war pushed feed makers to switch to alternatives. While some fear that could be a permanent change, Jim Sutter, chief executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said feed makers would return to using whatever is more economical when the trade war ends, and that includes soy.

Soybean imports by China are forecast to decline for the first time in 15 years to 88 million tons this season and FCStone says purchases could drop again to 71 million tons in 2019-20 due to the impact of African swine fever. (SD-Agencies)