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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy -> 
Data show outlook for US economy brightens
    2019-04-29  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

THE worries that hung ominously over the U.S. economy early this year appear to have lifted. And that sunnier picture has helped bolster confidence in the stock market — driving the benchmark S&P 500 index to another record high Friday.

The latest dose of encouragement came in a report Friday that the U.S. economy grew much faster than expected in the January-March period, suggesting that the nearly decade-long expansion still has a way to go.

Other recent signs have fed a growing view among many analysts that the economy faces little risk of slipping into a recession anytime soon as some had feared when the year began. Retail sales jumped in March. And with hiring solid and wages rising at a decent pace, consumer spending will likely strengthen in the coming months.

In Friday’s report, the government said the economy grew at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of the year. That’s much better than the 1 percent or below rate that was forecast in the early weeks of 2019.

Though the economy is widely expected to slow in the current quarter to a roughly 2 percent rate or less, such a pace would still produce annual growth for the first half of the year of roughly 2.5 percent. That would be a solid gain. And it would be in line with the modest but steady growth that has prevailed for most of the expansion.

It’s also a far brighter scenario than the one envisioned late last year and early this year. A 35-day partial shutdown of the government remained in effect through most of January. Global growth was sputtering in the midst of the trade war. Stocks plummeted in December as the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for the eighth time in nine quarters and signaled that further tightening was likely. Mortgage rates rose, discouraging many would-be homebuyers.

Economists cautioned that first quarter growth was driven mostly by several temporary factors that should reverse themselves in coming months.

Retailers and other companies, for example, sharply increased the stockpiles of goods in their warehouses and on store shelves. Those additions added nearly 0.7 percentage point to the quarter’s growth figure. And the trade deficit narrowed sharply, adding an additional percentage point.

“We know this is not going to be sustainable,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.

Businesses won’t likely order as many new goods as they wait for consumer spending to reduce their stockpiles. That will probably restrain growth.

State and local government spending also rose last quarter, mostly to build more highways, which added 0.4 percentage points to growth and may also prove short-lived. (SD-Agencies)

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