London could feel as hot as Barcelona by 2050, with Edinburgh’s climate more like Paris, Leeds feeling like Melbourne and Cardiff like Montevideo.

That’s from a study looking at how a 2-degree Celsius temperature increase could change the world’s 520 major cities.

And that’s not as good as it might sound. More than a fifth, including Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, will experience conditions big cities haven’t seen before, the Crowther Lab says.

London could suffer from the type of extreme drought that hit Barcelona in 2008 — when it was forced to import drinking water from France at a cost of US$25 million. The 2-degree Celsius rise by 2050 is comparing the present day to what temperatures were in the “pre-industrial period” — usually considered to be between the years 1850 and 1900 — when fossil-fuel burning hadn’t yet changed the climate.

That temperature increase would result in the average U.K. temperature during summer’s hottest month increasing by about six degrees to 27 degrees Celsius.

Scientists hope pairing up cities will help people visualize the impact climate change could have within their own lifetimes.

“History has repeatedly shown us that data and facts alone do not inspire humans to change their beliefs or act,” lead author Jean-Francois Bastin said.

The study, published in the journal PLOS One, suggests summers and winters in Europe will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5 degrees Celsius and 4.7 degrees Celsius respectively. It’s the equivalent to a city shifting 1,000 km further south — with those furthest away from the equator being most affected.

Governments around the world have pledged to limit rising temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. The global temperature has already increased by 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says.

And at the current rate of warming — 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade — global warming will reach 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2030 and 2052.

The U.N. body has warned that exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius warming will push us into “a highly uncertain world” — adding that “the current global commitments are not sufficient to prevent temperature rise above 2 degrees Celsius, let alone 1.5 degrees Celsius.”

Words to Learn 相关词汇

【干旱】gānhàn drought A long period of abnormally low rainfall, especially one that adversely affects growing or living conditions

【足够的】zúgòu de sufficient adequate, enough

2050年伦敦将和巴塞罗那一样热，爱丁堡的气候更接近巴黎，利兹气温和墨尔本趋同，卡迪夫则与蒙得维的亚（乌拉圭首都）类似。

一项研究预测了全球气温升高2度对世界520个大城市的影响。以上结果就来自这项研究。

结果比听上去还要糟。克劳瑟实验室称，超五分之一的城市，包括新加坡和吉隆坡，将面临大城市前所未见的气候变化。

伦敦将经历2008年巴塞罗那遭遇的极度干旱，当时巴塞罗那被迫耗资2500万美元从法国进口饮用水。

到2050年上升2摄氏度是同前工业时代的气温作对比。通常认为1850年到1900年是前工业时代，那时候化石燃料的使用尚未改变气候。

气温升高会导致英国夏日最热月份的平均气温升高6摄氏度，达到27摄氏度。

科学家希望通过城市间的对比可以帮助人们想象到气候变化在自己有生之年产生的影响。

首席作者让-弗朗索瓦●巴斯坦说：“历史反复地表明，仅靠数据和事实不能推动人们改变自己的观念或行动。”

这项发表在《科学公共图书馆●综合》期刊上的研究显示，欧洲的夏天和冬天会变得更热，平均气温将分别升高3.5摄氏度和4.7摄氏度。

这相当于一个城市南移1000公里，离赤道越远的城市受影响越大。

世界各地的政府都已承诺要在2050年前把气温增幅控制在1.5摄氏度以内。

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会称，全球气温已经比前工业时代的水平上升了1摄氏度。按照现在的全球变暖速度 —— 每十年升高0.2摄氏度 —— 气温增幅将在2030年和2052年间达到1.5摄氏度。

委员会警告说，气温增幅超过1.5摄氏度会将我们推向一个“高度不稳定的世界”，并补充说“现有的全球承诺不足以防止气温增幅超过2摄氏度，更别说1.5摄氏度”。

(Chinadaily.com.cn)