IRON ore and steel ended 2019 as China’s best performing commodities, while edible oils also won big, but an easing in Sino-U.S. trade tensions and the end to some one-off factors could reverse recent trends, say analysts.

In 2020, copper is likely to shine as the expected signing of a phase one trade agreement boosts the manufacturing sector, while soybeans should benefit from a rebuilding of the country’s pig herd.

Iron ore hit a record high on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in July and ended the year up 140 percent. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange wire rod rose 64 percent, while rebar gained by a third.

Iron ore supply shortages and government spending on infrastructure to shore up a slowing economy amid the trade spat helped drive price gains, but the sector’s bull run is seen over.

“Supply disruptions have largely come to an end and Brazil and Australia are ramping up production,” said Judy Su, Citi commodities research senior associate. “We also anticipate property starts to decline into 2020 off a high base, reducing Chinese end-use steel demand prospects.”

Shanghai nickel rose 36 percent this year due to Indonesia’s ore export ban from Jan. 1, 2020, but other base metals were hit by the Sino-U.S. trade row and sluggish global growth.

However, analysts expect Shanghai copper to gain in 2020 as a trade deal should boost China’s manufacturing sector by lowering tariffs.

Edible oils topped agricultural commodities in 2019 due to a slowdown in oilseed crushing following an outbreak of African swine fever that devastated its pig herd.

China typically imports soybeans to crush for meal to feed its livestock sector, leaving soyoil as a by-product. Less demand for feed cut soyoil output, pushing up prices on Dalian by nearly a fifth. Rival oils palm olein on Dalian and rapeseed oil on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose by around the same amount.

China is expected to import more soybeans this year as it rebuilds its pig herd.(SD-Agencies)