SHIITE cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the one-time leader of a rebellion against U.S. forces following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, is poised to become the country’s key political power broker after his movement won the largest share of seats in parliamentary election Oct. 9.

But the actual formation of a new government could be subject to weeks of political horse-trading with no clear leader in view and al-Sadr faces fierce competition from Shiite political rivals and pro-Iran hard-liners who wish to pull the country into closer orbit around Tehran.

In Iraq’s political system, the largest bloc in parliament chooses who becomes prime minister and with a fractured field, it could take some time for al-Sadr or other leaders to assemble a majority coalition. After the last vote in 2018, a new government wasn’t installed for eight months.

Initial results released Monday by Iraq’s election commission showed al-Sadr’s movement won some 73 seats in the 329-seat parliament, up from the 54 seats won by a multiparty alliance he led in 2018.

In a surprise setback for Tehran, the Fatah Alliance, broadly aligned with Iran-backed militias demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces, lost ground in the vote, weakening their potential negotiating power in talks toward forming a government.

The alliance is likely to emerge with just 12 or 13 seats in the new parliament, down from 48, according to the initial results.

Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition won some 37 seats in parliament. Al-Maliki is widely blamed for corruption and sectarian rule that helped fuel the rise of Islamic State in 2014, when he resigned.

The initial results didn’t include the results of votes cast by members of the security forces and others who participated in a separate day of voting.

The final results of the election, the fifth since 2003 and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in the wake of the American invasion of Iraq, could result in a small shift in the allocation of seats but are unlikely to alter the overall balance of power.

Al-Sadr has cast himself as an Iraqi nationalist independent of both Iranian and American influence with a stronger focus on the country’s economic crisis, and is regarded as more moderate than some of the Shiite factions that lean toward Iran. He isn’t seeking a political role himself — as a cleric he prefers to remain above the political fray — and in the run-up to the vote emphasized the long-running problems of corruption and mismanagement.

On Monday, he renewed his welcome to all embassies in Iraq so long as they steer clear of Iraq’s internal affairs and political processes.

In his speech, al-Sadr also made a stab at Iran-backed self-styled “resistance” militias.

“Today is the victory day of the people against the occupation, normalization, militias, poverty, and slavery,” al-Sadr said in a televised speech, apparently referring to the normalization of ties with Israel. “Even if those who claim resistance or such, it is time for the people to live in peace, without occupation, terrorism, militias and kidnapping.”

Hamdi Malik, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said al-Sadr’s speech emphasized the “Iraqiness” of his bloc.

“He called his bloc the biggest one and described it as ‘an Iraqi bloc, neither eastern nor Western,’ in reference to Iran and the United States,” Malik said.

One of al-Sadr’s other controversial political stances is his position towards Syria, calling for President Bashar al-Assad to step down in 2017, despite other Shiite groups’ backing for al-Assad.

Al-Sadr’s background and policies place him as a favorite among those who prioritize Iraq’s sovereignty and independence from Iranian intervention and U.S. involvement in the country.

After Saddam’s fall in 2003, following the U.S.-led invasion, al-Sadr said on CBS’ “60 minutes:” “The little serpent has left and the great serpent has come,” in reference to the U.S.

The Sadrist movement created by his father, the great religious authority Sayyid Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, and father in law – both men killed by the Saddam regime – distinguished itself from other Shiite religious movements by focusing on helping the poorest Iraqis, rather than spending time passing judgment on clerical matters.

This won them many devoted supporters during the rule of Saddam before 2003, when Iraq’s economy collapsed under international sanctions.

Millions of Iraqis, mainly poor Shiite farmers from southern Iraq and internally displaced Shiites who fled to slums during chaotic uprisings against Saddam in the 1990s, fervently followed al-Sadr’s orders to resist what he called occupation.

In return, his movement supported their impoverished families, while al-Sadr loyalists attacked the U.S. and other international forces, including the British Army.

The movement eventually forced the British Army to retreat from the oil-rich city of Basra, in 2007.

This was a step too far for his arch rival, then prime minister al-Maliki, who ordered the Iraqi army to retake the city. Al-Sadr then fled to Iran for several years, before returning to Iraq promising to play the role of a political leader, rather than a warlord.

Born in 1974, al-Sadr is the son of one of the most illustrious Shia religious families in Iraq, the al-Sadr family. His father was assassinated together with two of his sons by the Saddam regime in 1999.

After the death of his father, al-Sadr became a student of Iranian Ayatollah Kadhem Al-Ha’iri. Aside from his native country Iraq, Iran is the only other country he is familiar with, and his relations with the Iranian religious establishment invite speculations about his politics. Al-Sadr admitted that the situation in Iraq today differs from the situation that prevailed in Iran during the Islamic revolution in 1979. He said: “The political and social nature of Iraq will not allow the repetition of the Iran experiment.”

Unlike Ali al-Sistani, Iranian-born Shiite cleric and a leader of the Iraqi Shiite community who has not left his home in six years and who has communicated with the outside world through intermediaries, al-Sadr is media savvy. While he does not shy away from conflicts, he is careful not to go overboard. With name recognition, thanks to his father, whose photographs adorn every store front in the al-Sadr city, he is capable of attracting tens of thousands of followers from across Iraq. His greatest appeal is to the poor and the disenfranchised, and not a few of Saddam’s former supporters who share his abhorrence of the Governing Council.

Al-Sadr is vocally opposed to the American occupation and has stated that he has more legitimacy than the American-appointed Iraqi Governing Council.

In September 2003, he declared a shadow government in opposition to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). It is common belief that al-Sadr wishes to create an Islamic theocracy in Iraq, although al-Sadr himself has stated that he wishes to create an “Islamic democracy.” Though he has always opposed the American occupation, and has harsh words for anyone he considers as supporting it, at times he has hinted that if the Governing Council is given more authority and expanded to include “other parties,” he might be mollified.

Al-Sadr commands strong support (especially in the Sadr City ghetto in Baghdad, named after his father), and has raised a militia dubbed the “Imam Mahdi Army,” which has several times engaged in violent conflicts with occupation forces.

He has also set up a weekly newspaper, al-Hawza. The U.S.-led authorities announced a 60-day ban on the newspaper March 28, 2004, accusing it of inciting anti-U.S. violence.

The young cleric is known for giving fiery sermons, which urge the application of Islamic law while appealing to Iraqi national pride.

(SD-Agencies)