HOUSE price rises in India will gradually accelerate over the coming years but undershoot consumer inflation at least until 2023, according to a poll of property analysts who expect affordability to improve.

Housing market activity in India was struggling before the COVID-19 pandemic as many home builders were still starved of cash after the government in 2016 removed high denomination banknotes from circulation. Demand from buyers was also not strong.

But unlike many property markets that experienced soaring house prices, India’s price growth slowed and activity took a hit as the coronavirus pandemic threw millions out of work and left thousands of housing projects unfinished.

India’s once-roaring house prices rose only 2.4 percent during the first three quarters of 2021, a touch lower than last year’s 2.5 percent, the weakest since the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started compiling the data in early 2010.

The Nov. 18-Dec. 7 poll of 10 analysts predicted nationwide house prices to rise 2.25 percent and 3.75 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively. That is a downgrade from 2.50 percent and 4.50 percent expected in August.

If realized, those annual increases would remain below consumer inflation, which was forecast to average 5.2-5.4 percent in 2021 and 2022 in a separate survey issued Monday.

But average Indian house prices were forecast to rise 6.5 percent and 6 percent in 2023 and 2024, outstripping consumer price inflation by then. (SD-Agencies)