COAL traders in China are shrugging off a ban on coal exports imposed by Indonesia, saying utilities already hold hefty stockpiles with power demand set to weaken for the Lunar New Year holidays.

Coal stocks at key Chinese utilities in coastal regions were about 33 million tons as of Jan. 1, 57 percent more than at the same time in 2021, data from the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association showed.

Meanwhile, daily coal consumption by China’s power plants is currently flat versus last year at 2.2 million to 2.3 million tons — and expected to slump in the coming weeks when factories shut for the week-long Chinese New Year celebration.

“If we are not expecting any [extreme] cold [weather] waves, there would be no other factors to drive up coal demand in the near term,” said one Jilin-based coal trader.

Utilities in the region are fully relying on long-term contract supplies from domestic mines, and do not need to purchase from the spot market at the moment, he said.

The calm mood among China’s traders at the end of the first week of January contrasts with the alarm that shook global markets after Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, announced a shock ban on shipments Jan. 1 to avert domestic power outages.

China’s thermal coal prices jumped more than 6 percent on the first trading day of the year after the ban was announced, but have retreated since as traders and importers determined it would have negligible impact on China’s coal market due to a recent domestic output boom. That came in response to a power crunch in late 2021.

That surge in domestic output not only met demand from utilities through late 2021, but also replenished stockpiles for power generators so they are now less reliant on imports than in 2021, when imports jumped by around 10 percent from 2020.

In fact, traders said, the combinations of high stocks and weakening demand had been expected to drive coal prices lower — before the Indonesian ban came along to provide price support.

Since the ban was announced, Indonesian miners have moved to rectify the country’s stockpile shortfall by committing millions of tons to domestic power producers. National authorities also pledged to review the ban as early as Jan. 5.

(SD-Agencies)