GLOBAL demand for agricultural products is projected to grow by 15% over the coming decade, while agricultural productivity growth is expected to increase slightly faster, causing inflation-adjusted prices of the major agricultural commodities to remain at or below their current levels, according to an annual report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

However, uncertainties are emerging on top of the usual risks facing agriculture. These include disruptions from trade tensions, the spread of crop and animal diseases, growing resistance to antimicrobial substances, regulatory responses to new plant-breeding techniques, and increasingly extreme climatic events.

Worldwide, the use of cereals for food is projected to grow by about 150 million tons over the outlook period — amounting to a 13% increase — with rice and wheat accounting for the bulk of the expansion. The most significant factor behind the projected growth in food use of staple products is population growth, which is expected to rise fastest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

“Regrettably, the most needy regions are expected to see slow income growth and hence only small improvements in their nutritional status,” warned FAO Assistant Director-General for Economic and Social Development Máximo Torero. “The findings point to an overall decline in undernourishment; however, at current rates of improvement, we would remain far off track from reaching the Zero Hunger target by 2030.”

“The report makes abundantly clear that trade is critical for global food security,” said OECD Director for Trade and Agriculture Ken Ash. “Regions that are experiencing rapid population growth are not necessarily those where food production can be increased sustainably, so it is essential that all governments support open, transparent and predictable agro-food markets.”(SD-Agencies)